In India visit, Putin's message to the US and China

Just a day before talking to US President Joe Biden, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a short but significant visit to India on December 6 to attend the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit. The visit was well prepared, rich in symbolism and substantive in its outcome. It was his second overseas trip after the pandemic began, the first being to meet Biden in Geneva in June 2021.

Uninformed speculation had gathered strength about differences in the India-Russia relationship after Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's statement in December 2020 that India had become the object of the West's "persistent, aggressive and devious policy" to engage it in anti-China games by promoting the Indo-Pacific strategies. Russia had also criticised the US for its "very tough pressure" on India to renege from its commitment to buy the S-400 air defence systems.

Putin's visit was a clear signal that he viewed the India-Russia relationship very differently from his foreign minister and did not want India, a privileged partner, to slip entirely into Washington's embrace.

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Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Putin had detailed discussions for three hours during which Putin described India as a "great power", a time-tested friend and said that Russia works with India in a way that it does not work with any of its other partners. Modi said that the India-Russia friendship had "remained a constant" despite many fundamental changes in global politics and the two countries have cooperated closely, paying attention to each other's sensitivities.

Before the summit meeting, the two countries held the meeting of the Inter-Governmental Commission on Military and Technical Cooperation, which worked out a 10-year programme of cooperation. The first 2+2 Dialogue of the respective foreign and defence ministers was also held. Russia is the only country outside the Quad (the US, Japan and Australia) with whom India has such a dialogue.

In the past, there have been three main drivers of the India-Russia cooperation: defence, nuclear and space. An agreement was signed for the initial purchase and subsequent manufacture of 600,000 AK-203 assault rifles from Russia with complete transfer of technology. Despite considerable US opposition, India has started getting the S-400 air defence missile systems from Russia.

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In addition, it will be getting additional numbers of Sukhoi-30, MiG-29s for its Air Force and new frigates for its Navy. The two countries are collaborating on the Gaganyaan programme, which will carry Indian astronauts into space for seven days and return to Earth. They are working together on the construction of six nuclear reactors at Kudankulam for generating atomic power.

The visit of the Russian President has given a much-needed boost to expand bilateral trade with possibilities of import of Russian coking coal, fertilisers, timber, crude oil and LNG. The operationalisation of a "green corridor" (customs-free trade) and negotiation of the Bilateral Investment Protection Agreement and Chennai-Vladivostok Corridor are expected to expand the bilateral trade currently, at about $10 billion (2019-20).

Russia can live with the Indian concept of a free and open Indo-Pacific as long as it is not exclusionary. Neither will it seriously grudge the Quad provided it is not turned into a military alliance. To thwart the US pressure, Russia and China coordinate their positions on several political, economic and security issues. But Moscow is equally apprehensive about the proliferating Chinese influence in South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and East Europe. If the Quad can reduce China's aggressive and hegemonic activities in these areas, Moscow will welcome it quietly.

Similarly, Russia has cultivated closer ties with Pakistan and the Taliban regime to check the activities of various terror groups and resist the increasing Chinese influence that can hurt its interests in Central Asia and elsewhere. There is increasing convergence between the views of India and Russia on Afghanistan now, as the latter is disenchanted with the Taliban's refusal to set up a representative government, growing activities of the IS and other terror groups and smuggling of drugs.

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Moscow considers the India relationship crucial in the pursuit of its objective of a multipolar world and multipolar Asia and will not be happy with a world dominated by either Washington or Beijing.

Putin's visit was a signal to China that Russia is not overly dependent on her and will not compromise its strategic partnership with India.

Putin's visit has also sent a signal to Washington that Russia has multiple strategic options and would not be isolated. India and Russia agree broadly on the main principles for securing a multipolar world and continuation of peace, stability, security and prosperity in the Eurasian and Indo-Pacific areas. Though some differences remain on the Indo-Pacific and Quad issues, these can be managed easily as long as they don't let their bilateral ties be influenced too much by their relationship with third countries.

For India, its relationship with Russia is valuable. The latter has been a reliable partner that has provided sensitive technologies and a newer generation of military equipment, including a nuclear submarine and the new generation of fighter aircraft. Russia offers crucial options underpinning India's strategic independence and lacks adversarial elements. The US need not be unduly concerned about India-Russia ties as India's multi-dimensional partnership with her is growing rapidly and has much greater substantive content across diverse fields.

(Yogesh Gupta is a former ambassador)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.