In Manipur, a 'predictable' election takes twists and turns

With BJP falling out with former allies NPP and NPF, would a hung assembly cost N Biren Singh the CM's post?

Five years back, in 2017, the electorate of Manipur did not have enough reasons to send the Congress packing. The Congress party won as many as 28 seats, just three short of the majority mark, but failed to put in place a government with coalition partners.

Five years later, in 2022, the Congress objective is to revive its sagging electoral prospects in the state. However, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which looked comfortable returning to power a month back, suddenly finds itself in a do or die battle. This issue of survival haunts, in particular, the incumbent chief minister, N Biren Singh.

The saffron party queered its pitch when it dumped its allies in the run-up to the Assembly polls - the National People's Party (NPP) and the Naga People's Front (NPF) - and decided to contest all 60 seats on its own. The BJP's ambitious expansion plan is seen as the brainchild of Chief Minister Biren Singh. But now that the ticket distribution is done, dissension among the rank and file has added to the challenges of the BJP. A section of party leaders feels the over-ambition was perhaps an error of judgement.

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The BJP decided to field 60 candidates and set a winning target, mainly for media consumption, of 40. With the Congress marginalised, political observers assess the real contest in many seats could now be between the BJP and the NPP of Conrad Sangma, the chief minister of Meghalaya.

Between 2017 and 2022, the NPP's had a rollercoaster love-hate relationship with the BJP in Manipur, as it broke down more than once. On the contrary, the NPF, which drew its strength from the Naga dominated hills with four legislators, stuck dutifully with the coalition under the leadership of Biren Singh.

Insiders suggest if the saffron party does not perform too well, as the anti-Biren Singh camp expects within the BJP, the party could explore the option to go for a new chief ministerial face. Biren Singh now may face stiff competition from two of his colleagues, Thongam Biswajit Singh and Govindas Konthoujam.

"Obviously, Biren Singh would stay if the BJP were to do well. Else, after what the BJP high command did to Sarbananda Sonowal in Assam and Amit Shah's trusted lieutenant Himanta Biswa Sarma was made the chief minister, Biren Singh may miss the second term," says a party leader from the anti-Biren Singh camp.

Thongam Biswajit Singh is a key BJP leader representing the Thongju constituency in Imphal East. As the minister for public works, rural development and panchayati raj, Biswajit has worked closely with important central ministers in the Narendra Modi cabinet at the Centre, which has raised his prestige.

The other contender, Govindas Konthoujam, was the Congress state president and pitted himself against that party's veteran leader and multiple-term chief minister, Okram Ibobi Singh. He joined the BJP in August 2021. But then, Biren Singh is also a former Congress leader and had joined the BJP only in 2016, less than a year before the 2017 Assembly polls.

It lends grist to the theory that Biren Singh could get replaced since the BJP has surprised people with its choice of chief ministers in states in the last few years. It replaced Sonowal with Sarma in Assam in 2021. In 2017 in Uttar Pradesh, it picked Yogi Adityanath over Manoj Sinha. Last year, in Gujarat, the BJP sacked Vijay Rupani to replace him with Bhupendra Patel, a first-time legislator.

Biren Singh's supporters rule out any possibility of a change at the helm. They even argue that the speculation could hamper the BJP's prospects in many constituencies. They also point out that Biren Singh, unlike Sonowal, is a shrewder operator and would outfox his rivals within the party.

Just like Sarma had Amit Shah's confidence, so does Biren Singh. The Union Home Minister also showed faith in Biren Singh when the latter took up the cudgel to oppose any move by the Naga rebels for changing Manipur's territorial integrity. Biren Singh had taken a delegation of Meitei leaders to Shah, who had backed him. In the run-up to the polls, sources say, in his one-on-one meeting, Biren Singh had mooted to Shah his idea of the BJP contesting all 60 seats. Shah had readily endorsed the plan.

However, Biren Singh's troubles could arise from outside the party, particularly from former allies, the NPP of Conrad Sangma, if the BJP were to fall short of the majority mark. Sangma, the Meghalaya CM, and his most trusted colleague in Manipur, former IPS officer, Deputy CM Joykumar Singh, are not against the BJP. They have problems with Biren Singh.

In March 2017, after the previous Assembly polls concluded, the NPP of Conrad Sangma had bargained hard and managed to get the deputy chief minister's post for Y Joykumar Singh and ministerial berths for all other three of its legislators. It even got the finance portfolio.

On the other hand, with a matching number of four MLAs, the Naga People's Front (NPF) played a low profile. Initially, it could get only one ministerial portfolio, Losi Dikho, from the Mao constituency. The NPF could secure the second ministership only in 2020 (Awangbou Newmai ), and that was also when one legislator and Congress defector was disqualified.

However, Biren Singh and Y Joykumar Singh fell out during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The NPP even fielded its candidate, Thangminlien Kipgen, in the tribal stronghold Outer Manipur constituency. To the surprise of many, the NPP supported the CPI candidate, M Nara, in the Inner Manipur Lok Sabha constituency. But the NPF reached an agreement with the BJP and managed the Outer Manipur seat for Dr Lorho Pfoze. Biren Singh and NPP fought again, but the latter returned to the BJP-led coalition after the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This time, the NPP could get only two ministers.

Biren Singh also has cards up his sleeves in the current political manoeuvring round. Some believe that the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U), getting prominence in Manipur has to do something with Biren Singh. Curiously, many BJP ticket aspirants who were denied tickets later showed preference to join the fledgling Manipur unit of the JD(U). We shall soon know if they joined the JD(U) as it is a BJP-led National Democratic Alliance constituent or whether Biren Singh has propped up a 'B team' of the BJP. In any case, an election that had seemed predictable weeks back has turned into a potboiler.

(Nirendra Dev is a New Delhi-based journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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