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Moderate Iran's fate hangs in balance

A hardline conservative President will restrict normalisation of Tehran's relations with Europe, Asia.
Last Updated 08 May 2017, 18:28 IST

Iran's presidential election on May 19 will determine whether the country will continue efforts to reconnect with the international community after 38 years of ostracism and isolation following the revolution which overthrew the pro-Western shah.

If moderate President Hassan Rouhani is re-elected as polls suggest, Iran is likely to carry on with the programme of external normalisation made possible by the 2015 deal to dismantle the country’s nuclear programme in exchange for renewal of relations and an easing of sanctions.

In an unusual move, Rouha­ni’s vice president, Eshaq Jahan­giri, another moderate, has joined the race to “stand by Rou­hani and complement him,” rather than to compete with him. He originally registered to stand in case Rouhani was disqualified by the clerical Guard­ian Council, which decides who runs and who does not run. Jah­angiri may withdraw before pol­ling day in order to avoid divi­ding the moderate constituency.

If one of Rouhani’s main rivals — hardline conservatives Ebrahim Raisi, the national prosecutor general, or Mohammad Qalibaf, Tehran’s mayor — were to win, Iran could restrict normalisation with Europe and Asia and make challenging moves in West Asia affairs.

However, Tehran could be expected to remain committed to the terms of the nuclear deal as long as its partners — the US, France, Britain, China, Russia and Germany — continue to honour their obligations. Unfortunately, the US could pose a threat to the deal if the anti-Iranian Trump administration, under prodding from Israel, decides to flex its muscles by failing to ease or tighten sanctions.

Both Raisi and Qalibaf are afflicted with heavy baggage that could cost them votes. Raisi, who enjoys the support of Supreme Guide Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is a senior member of the judiciary and was a judge who decre­ed the execution of political prisoners in 1988. He is also the custodian of a religious foundation that manages funding to Iran’s holiest shrine in the city of Mas­had. Many of these foundations stand accused of corruption.

A former police chief and member of the elite Revolutionary Guards, Qalibaf ran and lost in the presidential elections in 2005 and 2013 and has suffered from corruption allegations and the collapse in January 2017 of a 17-storey commercial block in Tehran, killing 20 firemen. The two other candidates are non-entities who have no possibility of being elected.

Both moderates and conservatives need to preserve the nuclear deal because Iran has just begun harvesting its benefits. Iran's oil exports, its chief foreign currency earner, have increased to three million barrels a day, a level not reached since the 1979 revolution, and trade with the European Union (EU) has increased three fold over the past year. The EU is eager to cooperate with Iran in the nuclear and clean energy sectors. With this help, Iran could meet 30% of its needs from renewable energy resources by 2030. 
  
As candidate Bill Clinton stated when running for the US presidency in 1992, “It’s the economy, stupid.” When Rouhani assumed the presidency in 2013, he inherited minus 5.4% growth and 44%. In 2016, the growth rate was 5.8% and inflation had fallen to 9%. That’s quite an accomplishment.

Iran’s clerical overseers of the political system —  Khamenei and the Guardian Council — and the military know that they can’t abrogate the nuc­lear deal although they are using its failure to deliver instant econo­mic improvements for the public to accuse Rouhani, who spearheaded the negotiations, of not securing the best deal for Iran.

Growth has not only been stalled by sanctions, but also by rampant corruption, a major election issue. Corruption is extremely difficult to tackle because it has reached the top  of the clerical super-structure which dominates the executive, legislature and judiciary.

Corruption boomed during the tenure of Rouhani’s predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad (2005-13). Then, Iran earned $650 billion in oil revenues but none of this money was invested in upgrading the oil sector or new infrastructure.

Billions of dollars were used for populist hand-outs or simply disappeared. Powerful figures in the clergy, military, parliament, and banking and business have resisted efforts to curb corruption for decades. Their lucrative sanctions-breaking arrangements have been undermined by the nuclear deal.

Iran’s system of governance has contributed to this unsavo­ury situation. While the supr­eme guide is the ultimate auth­ority, beneath him are a number of clerical bodies which decide on candidates for election and for public appointments.

The vetting process imposes considerable limitations on who runs the country. Once candidates for political office are approved, voting is largely free and fair although the clerical establishment throws its weight behind conservative candidates. This time round, Ahmadi-Nejad did not get approval and could not stand for a third term.

Clerical and lay conservatives, backed by the military, can and do block progressive programmes put forward by presidents and their supporters in the legislature. Further, they also obstruct reforms needed if the country is to move ahead economically and politically in the post-nuclear deal era when Iran should make the most of the lifting of sanctions and commercial openings to the world.

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(Published 08 May 2017, 18:07 IST)

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