Remember Rajiv? Modi should

Senior Congress leader Jairam Ramesh once told columnist Sheela Bhatt that whenever Narendra Modi’s downfall comes, it will be sudden and steep.

The question is: Will the Covid-19 catastrophe unsettle Modi in the way Ramesh predicted? This is something only time, rather the outcome of the Assembly polls of Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat before the 2024 Lok Sabha election, can indicate.

At the core of Modi’s strength is the massive mandate he won in 2019. In 2014, for the first time after 1984 and much like Rajiv Gandhi, Modi mustered a single-party majority in the Lok Sabha.

But Modi’s similarity with Rajiv does not end in winning a huge mandate and cultivating the image of charismatic leadership. Modi, like Rajiv, has become a leitmotif for an agenda of change.

A cursory look at Rajiv’s tenure as prime minister (1984-89) confirms Ramesh’s formulation that even with a colossal mandate, popularity notwithstanding, the downfall can be sudden and steep.

Rajiv’s 1984 electoral victory, days after the tragic assassination of his mother Indira Gandhi, was spectacular (much more so than Modi’s 2014 or 2019 performances). Under him, the Congress had won 49.2% of total votes and 52% of the votes cast in the 485 seats it had contested on its own. The Congress had captured 79% of the seats in the Lok Sabha.

As author SS Gill wrote later in his book, Rajiv had had the advantage of viewing the Indian political system as an outsider. He conveyed an impression of being an open-minded, fair and receptive person who was eager to deliver results. The initial perception was that Rajiv could do no wrong.

However, by 1987, nothing seemed to be going right for the prime minister. Scandals exploded, shattering his “Mr Clean” image. Fairfax, Bofors and HDW Submarine deals, the unlocking of the gates of Ram Janmabhoomi-Babri Masjid and the Shah Bano episode exposed Rajiv’s political naivety and his proclivity to shoot himself in the foot.

On April 16, 1987, Swedish Radio made a startling disclosure, broadcasting details of bribes it alleged had been paid to Indian politicians to clinch the $600 million Bofors gun deal. Suddenly, Rajiv’s government was under scrutiny. In each deal that the Rajiv government signed, an Italian connection was probed.

Rajiv’s lifestyle also came under scrutiny. His love for designer shoes, fast cars, and expensive items became hot subjects of discussion and debate. In New Delhi, for the first time, the prime minister was seen driving himself, in a swanky Mercedes-Benz gifted by Jordan’s King Hussein.

Rajiv also drew criticism for his cherished annual holidays, when he used to pursue his interest in photography and wildlife. Much before he entered politics, Rajiv and Sonia used to regularly vacation in Italy and India. During Christmas and New Year, the entire family, including Sonia’s mother, her sisters and their husbands, used to get together. In a poor country, the chief executive was not expected to have a good time.

The Bofors scandal also impacted Rajiv’s friendship with megastar Amitabh Bachchan. Bachchan had joined politics and won from Allahabad in 1984. According to ML Fotedar, Bachchan used to wield a great deal of clout during his stint as a Member of Parliament. In his memoirs, Fotedar wrote, “I was also getting reports about Amitabh’s interference in the appointment and transfer of officers in the ministries.”

When the superstar’s name was dragged into the Bofors scandal, Bachchan resigned from Parliament in a huff, miffed at being accused of acting as a middleman. Bachchan fought for his honour and won a protracted legal battle to clear his name. However, his parting with Rajiv singularly contributed to the latter’s downfall. The Allahabad Lok Sabha by-election in 1987 gave the fragmented opposition a sense that together, they could humble the Congress.

Rajiv’s life came to an abrupt end barely three months after he and Sonia celebrated their twenty-third wedding anniversary on February 25, 1991 with a quiet dinner at a restaurant in Tehran.

Returning to the political question raised by Ramesh about the possibility of a steep fall for Modi, political observers feel that Rahul Gandhi, the Congress party and the combined opposition would need to create an opportunity the way VP Singh had during the Allahabad Lok Sabha by-poll.

In 2017, the Congress under Rahul’s leadership had a chance to create such an opening. The occasion was the Assembly polls in Modi’s home state, Gujarat. Rahul and the Congress fought a valiant battle, putting up a credible performance; the absence of an outright victory in Gujarat Assembly polls denied Rahul a chance to emerge as a national alternative to Modi.

Amidst the Covid-19 crisis and the Modi government’s inept handling of all aspects of it, from medicines and oxygen to vaccine and ICU bed availability, large-scale deaths in Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh, the opposition again has a chance to take on Modi in the 2022 Assembly polls in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

(Rasheed Kidwai is a journalist and author. He is a visiting fellow with the Observer Research Foundation)