<p>On the 75th anniversary of the India-China bilateral relationship, Chinese President Xi wrote to Indian President Murmu, calling for the India-China partnership to realise the “Dragon-Elephant Tango.” What is generally dismissed as diplomatic courtesy is actually far from it; it is a rapprochement from President Xi. The outreach comes amid President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs, and China’s growing economic woes. While this outreach is a positive step towards normalisation of India-China ties, India should proceed cautiously.</p>.<p>After the BRICS meeting in Kazan last year, India and China made significant steps towards normalisation <br>and disengagement in the LAC that arose from the 2020 Galwan clashes. Progress in restoring the relationship has been steady, but President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have made the world anxious, mainly China. While this outreach is an extension of the normalisation, it might not be purely benign. India has previously dealt with China’s ‘talk <br>and take’ strategy and is looking at this rapprochement cautiously.</p>.<p>China’s India policy has always been influenced by the strategic triangle of China-US-Russia relations. With President Trump in office in the US, and a willingness to normalise the US-Russia ties, China is looking to balance the upcoming détente. The Galwan clash has changed the relationship fundamentally. Minister Jaishankar talked recently about “improvement” in the relationship since October last year, and phased efforts to undo damage caused by the 2020 clashes. The comments indicate a willingness from the India side to reset the relationship.</p>.India bolsters defence, energy ties with Sri Lanka in bid to counter China's influence.<p>This outreach provides India an opportunity to negotiate better trade terms with China. India-China bilateral trade is valued at almost $120 billion but India’s trade deficit with China is growing and has reached $84 billion. India should work towards remedying this skewed trade to remove trade barriers on Indian imports in China, particularly in the pharmaceuticals, IT, auto and agriculture sectors.</p>.<p>Also, on the cards should be negotiating water-sharing agreements and transparency of dam projects. India should negotiate better terms on transnational rivers like Brahmaputra and Sutlej to sign a binding treaty on transboundary water sharing. China’s dam projects in Tibet are also a concern for India, necessitating transparency to avoid unilateral diversion and dam construction on transboundary rivers.</p>.<p>The 2023-24 Economic Survey made a case for Chinese FDI in select Indian sectors. India can utilise this to bring Chinese investments to strengthen manufacturing and investments on green/renewable energy sectors. It can also open up to Chinese investments in the pharmaceutical and API production industries with oversight. Chinese investments can help increase India’s global supply chain participation.</p>.<p><strong>Eyes on the ball</strong></p>.<p>India should recognise China’s diplomatic overture with optimistic but strategic restraint. China has its own interests in repairing ties with India. Its growth rate has been slowing with a property crisis, local government debt, and trade issues with the US and the EU. The reconciliation of its ties with India is in China’s interest and stability in the border with India frees up time for China to focus on other issues. While China is interested in normalising ties, there hasn’t been complete disengagement or resolution of the border issues. According to the Pentagon, China still has significant troops deployed in the LAC. There is a significant trust deficit in the India-China relationship. India’s past experiences with China don’t spell hope but in the current geopolitical landscape, cooperation will be in both India’s and China’s interest.</p>.<p>However, India should not take its eyes off the <br>ball. It should focus on decoupling and decreasing its economic dependence on China in crucial sectors. The military preparedness along the LAC should be strengthened and diplomatic engagements maintained to avoid unnecessary escalations. India should not halt infrastructure projects along the borders. It should also deepen its strategic partnerships with the QUAD countries, I2U2, and other key Indo-Pacific partners.</p>.<p>While the Make in India initiative has seen some progress in the defence sector, it is yet to show significant improvements in domestic manufacturing. India should strengthen its manufacturing sector to make Indian companies globally competitive because tariffs are becoming a reality. The India-China relationship is at a turning point. Economic and geopolitical realities are shaping this relationship in these uncertain times. The relationship’s future does not need grand promises but practical steps towards mutual respect and understanding. The elephant can tango with the dragon but some caution is in order.</p>.<p>(The writer is a junior intelligence analyst and freelance writer)</p>
<p>On the 75th anniversary of the India-China bilateral relationship, Chinese President Xi wrote to Indian President Murmu, calling for the India-China partnership to realise the “Dragon-Elephant Tango.” What is generally dismissed as diplomatic courtesy is actually far from it; it is a rapprochement from President Xi. The outreach comes amid President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ reciprocal tariffs, and China’s growing economic woes. While this outreach is a positive step towards normalisation of India-China ties, India should proceed cautiously.</p>.<p>After the BRICS meeting in Kazan last year, India and China made significant steps towards normalisation <br>and disengagement in the LAC that arose from the 2020 Galwan clashes. Progress in restoring the relationship has been steady, but President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have made the world anxious, mainly China. While this outreach is an extension of the normalisation, it might not be purely benign. India has previously dealt with China’s ‘talk <br>and take’ strategy and is looking at this rapprochement cautiously.</p>.<p>China’s India policy has always been influenced by the strategic triangle of China-US-Russia relations. With President Trump in office in the US, and a willingness to normalise the US-Russia ties, China is looking to balance the upcoming détente. The Galwan clash has changed the relationship fundamentally. Minister Jaishankar talked recently about “improvement” in the relationship since October last year, and phased efforts to undo damage caused by the 2020 clashes. The comments indicate a willingness from the India side to reset the relationship.</p>.India bolsters defence, energy ties with Sri Lanka in bid to counter China's influence.<p>This outreach provides India an opportunity to negotiate better trade terms with China. India-China bilateral trade is valued at almost $120 billion but India’s trade deficit with China is growing and has reached $84 billion. India should work towards remedying this skewed trade to remove trade barriers on Indian imports in China, particularly in the pharmaceuticals, IT, auto and agriculture sectors.</p>.<p>Also, on the cards should be negotiating water-sharing agreements and transparency of dam projects. India should negotiate better terms on transnational rivers like Brahmaputra and Sutlej to sign a binding treaty on transboundary water sharing. China’s dam projects in Tibet are also a concern for India, necessitating transparency to avoid unilateral diversion and dam construction on transboundary rivers.</p>.<p>The 2023-24 Economic Survey made a case for Chinese FDI in select Indian sectors. India can utilise this to bring Chinese investments to strengthen manufacturing and investments on green/renewable energy sectors. It can also open up to Chinese investments in the pharmaceutical and API production industries with oversight. Chinese investments can help increase India’s global supply chain participation.</p>.<p><strong>Eyes on the ball</strong></p>.<p>India should recognise China’s diplomatic overture with optimistic but strategic restraint. China has its own interests in repairing ties with India. Its growth rate has been slowing with a property crisis, local government debt, and trade issues with the US and the EU. The reconciliation of its ties with India is in China’s interest and stability in the border with India frees up time for China to focus on other issues. While China is interested in normalising ties, there hasn’t been complete disengagement or resolution of the border issues. According to the Pentagon, China still has significant troops deployed in the LAC. There is a significant trust deficit in the India-China relationship. India’s past experiences with China don’t spell hope but in the current geopolitical landscape, cooperation will be in both India’s and China’s interest.</p>.<p>However, India should not take its eyes off the <br>ball. It should focus on decoupling and decreasing its economic dependence on China in crucial sectors. The military preparedness along the LAC should be strengthened and diplomatic engagements maintained to avoid unnecessary escalations. India should not halt infrastructure projects along the borders. It should also deepen its strategic partnerships with the QUAD countries, I2U2, and other key Indo-Pacific partners.</p>.<p>While the Make in India initiative has seen some progress in the defence sector, it is yet to show significant improvements in domestic manufacturing. India should strengthen its manufacturing sector to make Indian companies globally competitive because tariffs are becoming a reality. The India-China relationship is at a turning point. Economic and geopolitical realities are shaping this relationship in these uncertain times. The relationship’s future does not need grand promises but practical steps towards mutual respect and understanding. The elephant can tango with the dragon but some caution is in order.</p>.<p>(The writer is a junior intelligence analyst and freelance writer)</p>
