India faces strategic challenge as Turkiye deepens Bangladesh ties

Bilal Erdoğan’s Dhaka visit underscores Türkiye’s ideological and strategic outreach, unsettling India’s regional calculus.

In the recently held Bangladesh national elections, Turkey sent the second largest contingent of international observers. Berris Ekinci, the Turkish Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, attended the swearing-in ceremony of Bangladesh National Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman as prime minister, and promised greater collaboration between Ankara and Dhaka.

However, more intriguing has been the unannounced visit of Necmettin Bilal Erdoğan (the son of Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan) on February 18, a day after Rahman was sworn in. Bilal Erdoğan was accompanied by Turkish-origin German football star Mesut Ozil, and Abdullah Eren, the president of the Turkish Cooperation Agency (TIKA), which functions as a major instrument of Turkey's foreign policy outreach. Turkish media highlighted Bilal Erdoğan having the first iftar meal of Ramadan at a camp for Rohingya refugees. Later, he visited many initiatives undertaken by TIKA, and inaugurated a newly built medical centre at Dhaka University, a project funded by TİKA.

Dhaka-Ankara ties are not new. Anchored in trade and aid, they have always been cordial. But alarm bells are now ringing in New Delhi given the changed geopolitical landscape in South Asia. Turkey is not just another extra-regional power here, its ideological underpinning and military entrenchment are a direct threat to India.

The ideology of Turkey's ruling dispensation is anchored in political Islam, which makes it an unwavering ally of South Asia 's Jamaat-i-Islami, both in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Turkey was one of the fiercest lobbyists against the International War Tribunal and convictions handed out under the now overthrown Sheikh Hasina 's Awami League government. In 2016, the conviction of Jamaat leader Motiur Rehman Nizami led to a major diplomatic spat between the two. Later ties were mended, with growing defence co-operation and investments, all under the watch of India’s friend Hasina.

Türkiye's new Asia policy

On August 5, 2019, Turkey's Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced the Asia Anew Initiative, the main objective of which was to establish co-operation between Türkiye and Asian countries in politics, security, and economy. The key drivers were Turkey's inability to become part of the European Union; the downturn in relations with the post-Arab Spring Arab world; pursuing a policy to become a global defence exporter; and to acquire influence in the Muslim world. These neatly converged with the rise of Asian states as global economic powerhouses, offering lucrative defence markets, with a sizeable population of the world's Muslims.

Bangladesh became a major plank in this initiative, in both trade and defence. It emerged as Turkey's second trade partner in Asia; and by 2021, Dhaka had become the fourth-largest importer of Turkish defence products, acquiring Turkish systems like Bayraktar TB2 drones, armoured vehicles, rocket launchers, BORAN howitzers, etc.

These ties have undergone a strategic shift under the Muhammad Yunus-led interim government. In January, Yunus invited Turkey to setup defence manufacturing in Bangladesh. "You are the leader of the technology; you can build your defense industry here....... we are available for anything that you need," Yunus told a Turkish delegation led by Trade Minister Ömer Bolat.

Ideologically too, the Yunus government 's lenient policy towards the Jamaat ensured that Turkey could deepen its ties with it through funding, and through various social and charitable initiatives. In the run up to the polls, and beginning from the 2024 August movement, the Turkish media has been acting as a spokesperson for the interim government, while promoting an anti-India narrative. Today, the Jamaat has become Bangladesh’s main opposition party, capturing most seats in the sensitive regions bordering India. It's Shibir hosted Bilal Erdoğan shortly after the BNP came to power.

At the same time, there has been a sharp downturn in India-Turkey ties, given Turkey's meddling in India's domestic affairs, its overt support for Pakistan, and hostility towards India during Operation Sindoor.

In July, an Islamist group in Dhaka called the ‘Saltanat-e-Bangla’, put out a map of ‘Greater Bangladesh’ that included parts of India, which External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said was backed by the ‘Turkish Youth Federation’, a Turkish NGO.

So, while India is looking forward to beginning a new chapter with Bangladesh following the BNP's victory, it will have to contend with a powerful rival — Turkey's expanding influence in Bangladesh.

Aditi Bhaduri, a political analyst, specialises in Eurasian affairs.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.