Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is expected to win a fourth consecutive term in office, which will extend her rule by another five years. Having led Bangladesh without a break for the last 14 years (apart from her first term as premier 1996-2001), a fourth consecutive term would be impressive indeed. And yet, her expected victory in the upcoming January 7 polls will be lacking in sheen, coming as it will in the backdrop of an election boycotted by the main opposition party, the Bangladesh National Party (BNP), and the clear backsliding of democracy in the country.
Hasina’s Awami League, with its election pitch of a ‘Smart Bangladesh’ has vowed to usher in peace, prosperity and development. Undoubtedly, her government has done good work in terms of Bangladesh’s economic development and building of infrastructure. But her fourth term will be fraught with challenges if the current political turmoil in Bangladesh continues. Rising public disaffection with a regime that’s seen as authoritarian could threaten stability in a nation where radical elements have been gaining ground.
The BNP is boycotting the elections, maintaining that they will neither be free nor fair as they are not being held under the watch of a caretaker government as demanded by the Opposition. However, the BNP would have done well to contest the elections by virtue of being the largest opposition party. It would also have given Bangladeshi voters a choice despite fears that the polls will be rigged once again. Bangladesh last had elections under a neutral government in 1996 after Hasina herself carried out a concerted campaign for it. Ironically, once in power, her government abolished the constitutional provision to have elections under a caretaker government.
Even before voting takes place to directly elect some 300 members to the 350-member Jatiya Sangsad, questions are being raised on the legitimacy of an election where the Opposition has been ruthlessly decimated. BNP leaders and activists have been either arrested or have cases filed against them. A win in what will be a farcical election will help the 76-year-old Hasina tighten her iron grip over Bangladesh. It's a grip that has come at the cost of a steady erosion of democratic norms. But the BNP too is not beyond reproach on this count, having been similarly accused of whittling democratic norms when in power.
In the months preceding the elections, Hasina has been under intense pressure from the US to ensure free and fair elections. This insistence, it was felt, would actually help BNP’s cause. But Washington’s pressure on Dhaka -- it wanted rival political parties to hold talks before the elections and had warned that visa restrictions will kick in for those found undermining the democratic election process -- has clearly had little impact.
The US insistence on free and fair elections in Bangladesh is driven by its own geopolitical imperatives. Bangladesh is an important element of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy to contain China. Beijing has made significant inroads into Bangladesh though, much to New Delhi’s relief, Hasina’s government has been mindful of India’s strategic interests in the region. Indeed, Hasina has been quite adroit in balancing India and China in her foreign policy approach, well aware that she needs both for the development of Bangladesh.
Indeed, despite tensions in their bilateral relations, New Delhi and Beijing are on the same page as far as the upcoming Bangladesh polls are concerned, driven as they are by their own strategic interests. Both have said Bangladesh elections are the country’s internal matter.
Delhi, in fact, would be very pleased to see Hasina, who has proven to be a steadfast friend and ally in a difficult neighbourhood, return to power.
For instance, Hasina’s government has over the years cracked down hard on militants in India’s North-East sheltering in Bangladesh, desisted from embarrassing Delhi on its failure to deliver the Teesta water-sharing agreement, and has been extending full cooperation to enable India to boost connectivity to its North-East via rail links running through Bangladesh and by allowing the use of its ports. Hasina has also ignored Opposition criticism of being pro-India and pressed ahead with forging close ties with Delhi.
Having faced a hard time with the ailing BNP leader Khaleda Zia as PM, Delhi values its partnership with Hasina. It’s also wary of the anti-India BNP’s close ties with the Jamaat-e-Islami, the largest Islamist party in Bangladesh, which has close links with Pakistan. However, Delhi would do well to keep in mind that being seen as aligned with one party does not help its cause as far as the ordinary Bangladeshi is concerned. For it only serves to reinforce India’s image as the meddling ‘big brother’ among a section of Bangladeshis.
(The writer is a senior New Delhi-based journalist)