India's challenges amid civil-military friction in Pakistan and Myanmar

Instability has been a key feature of politics in India's neighbourhood. Delhi has often been forced to limit the spillover effects of unstable regional countries. Sometimes, unwittingly, India has found itself getting sucked into the instability as well. While global attention has been fixated on developments related to the Russia-Ukraine War and the domestic politics of China and the United States, India's neighbourhood needs to be back in focus.

The assassination attempt on the recently-ousted former Pakistan PM Imran Khan is seen as an important development that will mark the shift in the politics of our western neighbour. This month is also important from the point of view of the leadership transition in the Pakistan Army. Will General Qamar Javed Bajwa hand over power to his successor or be tempted to go back on his word and stay in as army chief? Will the transition, if it takes place, be smooth? What will be the role of Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif in this transition?

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On India's eastern periphery, Myanmar has been in the grips of instability since the military coup of February 2021. There has been a fierce resistance that has been building up to the military junta. The army has resorted to using air power to end the armed resistance. It has turned to Russia and China for support. However, despite the indiscriminate use of force and air power, the junta has so far failed to end the opposition to its rule and stabilise the country.

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For Myanmar, the upcoming summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), scheduled this month, will be crucial. Will the military be allowed to attend the summit? Or will the regional isolation of Myanmar continue? Will the military be willing to act on the five-point formula proposed by the regional grouping?

The question of democracy and civil-military relations is at the heart of the problem in Pakistan and Myanmar. The military has been the dominant force shaping national politics in both countries since their independence. Therefore, military intervention in the democratic process is not just seen as a routine practice but has been an accepted norm of politics. The political class is expected to work within limits imposed by the army.

However, the growing popularity of the National League of Democracy (NLD) in Myanmar and the assertion of his prime ministerial authority by Imran Khan pose a challenge to the institutional and structural power of the military. That is why the military has been trying desperately to control the levers of power and recover the 'lost' ground. The sequence of events is instructive in both cases.

In Pakistan, the army brought in Imran Khan in 2018 as their man. It then grew steadily disillusioned with him as he began to assert himself. He even tried to block the appointment of a new ISI chief last year. Therefore, the army worked with two established political parties, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N), with whom it has a similar off-again, on-again kind of relationship, to get rid of Imran Khan. However, the assassination attempt on Imran Khan and the likely transition in the army leadership will complicate the dynamics between the military, the ruling coalition, and Imran Khan.

In Myanmar, the second electoral victory of the NLD in November 2020 was seen by the army as a direct challenge to its authority. The electoral victory indicated the growing popularity and legitimacy of the NLD in Burmese politics. If the NLD was not stopped, the army feared, the control would gradually slip away. Therefore, the army decided to act and re-asserted itself. However, it has not been smooth sailing for the junta. Myanmar has strengthened ties with Russia and China but has become a problem for ASEAN. Can the junta brazen out the regional pressure?

For India, instability in both countries remains a cause for concern. Obviously, the media attention is fixated on Pakistan. However, the problem of instability in Myanmar and its implications for the security and stability of the Northeast region have largely been ignored. Globally, human rights activists blame India as well for supporting the military junta. India has been balancing its Myanmar policy with the reality of the deep people-to-people links between the Northeastern states and upper Burma. For India, the security interests of a volatile and complex frontier will take precedence over the values of democracy. This has been a consistent theme in India's regional engagements. Similar imperatives directed India's outreach to the Taliban. The return of the familiar theme of an unstable neighbourhood will likely consume large bandwidth of India's foreign and strategic policy.


(The writer is an Assistant Professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.