Indo‑Pacific Convergence | Seoul’s bet, New Delhi’s test

India and South Korea are moving from cultural nostalgia to strategic necessity in a turbulent world

India and the Republic of Korea (RoK) have made a leap in time stretching across a span of two millennia.

Ayodhya-born Princess Suriratna of 32 AD — Empress Heo, according to Korean legend — the mascot of goody-goody India-South Korea ties since bilateral relations were upgraded in 2010, has given way to dealing with Korea’s ‘tyranny of geography’ and what India can do as guardians of neutrality in the peninsula’s destiny. The transformation was necessary because contemporary events, especially in the Persian Gulf, have thrust upon New Delhi and Seoul the need for a rebirth in their ties.

The rebirth, anchored on a three-day visit to India by South Korea’s President Lee Jae Myung from April 19, is all-encompassing. At its one extreme on the people-to-people level, ‘K-Pop meets Bollywood’ is contemplated, and nationwide celebrations are planned in 2028-2029 to mark a designated ‘Year of India-RoK Friendship’. At its other extremity is a planned confluence of the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean as ‘a single, interconnected maritime space’, and the idea of an energy-buyers’ version of the oil producers’ cartel, for long the nemesis of consumers of imported energy like India and South Korea.

Few people knew until Lee’s arrival in New Delhi on his first visit that a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) has been in force between the two countries since 2010. The presumption, even among those who ought to know better, has been that India’s first CEPA was with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which entered into force in 2022. For a trading country like South Korea, its exports to India stand at a paltry $21 billion, and India’s corresponding exports are just $ 5.8 billion. Comparable figures for India’s trade with other countries are instructive.

For the last nine years, through 11 rounds of halting negotiations, the two countries have been struggling to address problems in this lop-sided CEPA, which has India shouldering a deficit of $15.24 billion at the last count. Convulsions in global commerce in the last 14 months, triggered by trade tariffs announced by the United States, have made it impossible for India and South Korea to carry on as if such challenges are business as usual.

Discussions among pundits on Lee’s meetings with Modi on April 20 have focused on such issues by habit because, ever since India’s ‘Look East’ initiative, India-RoK ties have been dominated by trade and investments. The importance of the Modi-Lee summit is that this is about to change.

The idea of ‘a unified voice for consumer nations in the global energy discourse, functioning as a purposeful counterweight to the unilateral actions of Iran and the US and, in due course, also the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’ is owed in its current form to Skand Ranjan Tayal, former ambassador to South Korea. According to Tayal, “the current crisis presents a window of opportunity…India should act decisively to initiate high-level consultations with China, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, and Indonesia to review the situation on a continuous basis, and seek similar and acceptable responses.” Three weeks before Lee’s visit, Tayal detailed his proposal in a research paper, to the BJP-linked Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF). In diplomacy, it is not unusual for big, new initiatives to be bounced off friendly think-tanks before they are put on plurilateral government plans.

On the eve of his talks with Modi, Lee duly responded in a media interview. “The war in the Middle East has underscored the strategic reality that the Indian and Pacific Oceans form a single, interconnected maritime space – one whose stability no country can secure alone.” During summit talks, Tayal’s proposal was acted upon. An India-RoK Joint Statement on Energy Resources Security said the two countries will ‘explore closer collaboration among liquified natural gas-consuming countries.’ This is a small start. Other elements in the VIF paper for Asian oil importers to harmonise their approaches and strategies are likely to be taken up appropriately at plurilateral official levels in due course, according to sources privy to the highest-level discussions on this matter.

Lee’s reference to the Indian and Pacific Oceans as a single, interconnected maritime space is not entirely new. In his address to Parliament in New Delhi in 2007, Japan’s visionary Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said: “As a new ‘broader Asia’ takes shape at the confluence of the two seas of the Indian and Pacific Oceans, it is imperative that the democratic nations located at opposite edges of these seas deepen the friendship among their citizens at every possible level.” Abe’s resignation three weeks after his India visit and five years out of the top office meant that his idea did not take off significantly.

Lee has now floated the concept, and current geopolitics favours its revival. By joining the Indo-Pacific Oceans Initiative and launching a dialogue of foreign ministers on maritime co-operation and the Arctic, Seoul has signalled that it is serious about the idea. The ball is now in India’s court.

K P Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.