Interpreting China-US war of words over Taiwan

Beijing is likely to think hard before risking war over Taiwan given the economic costs involved

The question of Taiwan's identity has again come into focus in the backdrop of the upcoming FIFA World Cup in Qatar. The organisers first listed the island's name as Taiwan, a province of China. It was later changed to Taiwan, a change which Taiwan welcomed. However, it did not last long. Finally, it was Chinese Taipei. Taiwan has accused Beijing of using its economic and political clout. Doha, however, accepts the 'One China Policy' and has diplomatic relations with Beijing.

There's been much focus on the China-Taiwan relations and the situation across the Taiwan Strait in the aftermath of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Beijing has become uber assertive. It has not left any opportunity to express its displeasure towards the idea of Taiwanese independence. It has also indicated that it will not shy away from a military reunification.

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The goal of reunification with Taiwan is one of the primary ambitions of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the People's Republic of China (PRC). Beijing has been more assertive toward Taiwan after Xi Jinping took over as the Chinese president. Beijing's unwavering stance has been that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China, and the ultimate fulfilment of the 'Chinese Dream' can only be achieved through reunification.

But the US stance has made it difficult for China to take a unilateral approach toward Taiwan. Since the Russian attack on Ukraine, the international community has questioned the US commitment to safeguarding Taipei. The statements by Joe Biden reiterating Washington's position and support for defending Taiwan have put this issue at rest.

But it has not helped the overall situation across the Taiwan Straits. The continuing arms sales to Taiwan by the US and the Taiwan Relations Act further complicate this situation. To add to these, two United States senators have introduced a bill to help support Taiwan with security assistance amounting to billions of dollars and tweak the law guiding American relations with Taiwan. The bill has been sponsored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, a Democrat and Lindsey Graham, a Republican.

In response to Biden's statement, Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe recently stated at the Shangri-La Dialogue that any attempt to make Taiwan independent would lead to war. Wei said, "If anyone dares to secede Taiwan from China, we will… fight at all costs, and we will fight to the very end. This is the only choice for China". He argued that foreign powers should stop using the Taiwan card to hurt Beijing and that no country can prevent China and Taiwan from reuniting. An article in China Daily quoted Yang Jiechi saying, "The risk does not only exist but will escalate as the US attempts to contain China with the Taiwan question and as the Taiwan authorities rely on the US to seek its 'independence'." He made this statements in Luxembourg while meeting the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.

This war of words between China and the US over Taiwan has reached newer levels. It is no surprise that Beijing has started asserting that the Taiwan Strait is not international water, an idea which is a very recent development. If China questions the freedom of navigation through the Taiwan Strait, it is also questioning the legitimacy of the movement of the US vessels. This may be a new method used by Beijing to prevent the movement of the US vessels through the Strait, as these were a significant issue for Beijing. China has constantly argued that these acts by Washington encouraged the Taiwanese confidence in the US support of its sovereignty. In a show of strength, on June 22, around 29 Chinese warplanes flew through the Taiwanese self-declared air defence identification zone (ADIZ). The PRC's use of Chinese warplanes has become a standard exercise, underscoring its capabilities and commitment to a military reunification.

There is enough analysis available to argue that though China has the advantage of a large and modernised army, navy and air force and the proximity advantage, its most significant challenge is that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) is not battle-tested. The last war the PLA was involved in was with Vietnam in 1979. On the other hand, the Taiwanese army has also been working towards improving and upgrading its defence forces with the help of the US. The war may not be as one-sided as Beijing would want to believe. However, some speculation suggests that if China were to attack Taiwan, it would probably be around 2027, according to a US Admiral. The date marks the centenary of the PLA.

Such harsh words exchanged between the top two military and economic powerhouses do not bode well for the international community. The situation between China and the US has been tense since the trade war started. The outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic and the virus spread starting in Wuhan, China, has further strained relations. The world economy is suffering from the pandemic and just beginning to get things back on track. Also, that the Chinese economy has suffered a significant setback, will Beijing be able to start a war across the Taiwan Strait and get the United States involved? There are ample reports to suggest that the economic cost of a military confrontation between China and Taiwan would be adverse for the global economy. The vast military cost and the uncertainty of a win may be enough deterrence for Beijing to think long and hard before it attacks Taiwan.

The goal to achieve reunification is essential for the CCP, but can it have the same advantage and benefits for the party in the long term if it creates significant challenges for the Chinese people. The assertive words used by Beijing may well be to appease the domestic situation, as the CCP would not like to appear weak at home, given that it is already working towards managing the economic slowdown and pandemic.

(Gunjan Singh is Assistant Professor, OP Jindal University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own.They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.