<p>The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader has heightened the importance of determining his successor, and the future course of governance in Iran at this critical juncture. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last king of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been trying to gain the United States’ support but has not succeeded. While Reza Pahlavi’s social media lobby is celebrating Khamenei’s death, his followers remain a small number among the Iranian diaspora. Apart from Reza Pahlavi’s supporters, there exists a major dissenting group in Iran that demands autonomous democratic rule in the country in opposition to the Islamic regime.</p><p>The people who demand autonomous democratic rule comprise women, youth, students, intellectuals, bazaris, minorities and the working class, and have a legitimate right to decide the future form of governance. For a long time, they have fought authoritarian Tehran, leading major resistance movements, including the student protests in 1999 and 2003, the Green Movement in 2009, the Mahsa Amini protest in 2022, and the anti-establishment protests of December 2025-January 2026.</p><p><strong>Clerical establishment, succession question</strong></p><p>Alireza Arafi, a senior-ranking cleric with long experience in theological and bureaucratic positions, including membership of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, and a Khamenei loyalist, has been appointed Iran’s interim Supreme Leader. Arafi is a conservative, or hardliner politician. As the decision on the selection of the Supreme Leader may take time, a temporary three-member council, represented by the president, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Guardian Council (Arafi), assumes the duties of the Supreme Leader.</p>.Iran’s resilience meets Trump's miscalculations.<p>Some reports suggested that the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member body of senior Shia clerics) was considering Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, as the next Supreme Leader. However, Khamenei was not in favour of a hereditary takeover of power, and Mojtaba does not have experience in handling administrative responsibilities.</p><p>Though the larger sentiment of a majority of Iranians is against the clerical regime, the assassination of the Supreme Leader might divert the real demands of the people, which is the democratisation of governance. The regime has long faced a crisis of legitimacy, managing dissent through violent crackdowns on protesters and executions of dissidents.</p><p>Millions of people in Qom and other cities have gathered to mourn Khamenei’s killing. This momentum can be used in reclaiming the legitimacy of the clerical establishment. The protests in support of the clerical establishment and mourning over Khamenei’s martyrdom are seen beyond Iran. Indian Muslim communities (particularly Shias) in many places have gathered with the portraits of the Supreme Leader to mourn his assassination. The martyrdom will reignite global Shia solidarity.</p><p><strong>Geopolitical constraints on democracy in Iran</strong></p><p>Geopolitics and vested interests of external powers such as the United Kingdom, France, Russia (historically), and the US, especially since the 1950s, have nurtured an authoritarian Tehran, whether a monarchy or Islamic Republic. Mohammad Reza Shah, the last king of Iran, became a US stooge to counter British and Soviet aggression. After 1979, anti-US sentiments nurtured legitimacy for the authoritarian regime.</p><p>The US sanctions have deteriorated the lives of common Iranians more than harming the ruling elites. For the US and other Western forces, the Iranian nuclear policy became a red herring for creating instability without any guarantee of restoring democracy.</p><p>It must be noted that Khamenei’s killing is not just fuelling the legitimacy of the clerical establishment of the Islamic Republic, but can help Netanyahu and Trump, both facing increasing distrust among their supporters at home. Trump and Netanyahu attacked Iran and killed Khamenei, not to open the gates for human emancipation.</p><p><strong>Forging pathways to an indigenous democracy</strong></p><p>Iranians neither want an authoritarian regime nor imported democracy, nor any form of a stooge government serving external powers, especially the US. They want democracy on their own terms. The roots of democracy are indigenous and non-derivative. They draw upon precedents in Iran’s modern history, such as the Tobacco Movement (1890-1892), the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911), nationalisation of oil by Mohammad Mosaddegh (1951-1953), and the emancipatory promises of the 1979 Revolution.</p><p>Protests in Iran have consistently been driven by public intellectuals, youth, women, students, workers, artists, and minorities. Leadership must emerge from these groups through democratically established procedures, with constitutional amendments making governance democratic in nature, or by deleting theocratic elements. This requires the removal of the position of Supreme Leader or Velayat-e Faqih.</p><p>Democracies across the world, including India, must reject the clerical establishment's disapproval of celebrating Khamenei as a hero, and support Iranians in finding the correct course of the future by establishing indigenous democracy. Iran needs leaders who can handle the West diplomatically without compromising the freedom and rights of Iranians, especially women and youth, and improve the material condition by reforming the economy. Opposition to imperialism can never be the justification for authoritarianism in any form.</p><p><em>Umesh Kumar is Assistant Professor, O P Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>The assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader has heightened the importance of determining his successor, and the future course of governance in Iran at this critical juncture. Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last king of Iran, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has been trying to gain the United States’ support but has not succeeded. While Reza Pahlavi’s social media lobby is celebrating Khamenei’s death, his followers remain a small number among the Iranian diaspora. Apart from Reza Pahlavi’s supporters, there exists a major dissenting group in Iran that demands autonomous democratic rule in the country in opposition to the Islamic regime.</p><p>The people who demand autonomous democratic rule comprise women, youth, students, intellectuals, bazaris, minorities and the working class, and have a legitimate right to decide the future form of governance. For a long time, they have fought authoritarian Tehran, leading major resistance movements, including the student protests in 1999 and 2003, the Green Movement in 2009, the Mahsa Amini protest in 2022, and the anti-establishment protests of December 2025-January 2026.</p><p><strong>Clerical establishment, succession question</strong></p><p>Alireza Arafi, a senior-ranking cleric with long experience in theological and bureaucratic positions, including membership of the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts, and a Khamenei loyalist, has been appointed Iran’s interim Supreme Leader. Arafi is a conservative, or hardliner politician. As the decision on the selection of the Supreme Leader may take time, a temporary three-member council, represented by the president, the head of the judiciary, and a member of the Guardian Council (Arafi), assumes the duties of the Supreme Leader.</p>.Iran’s resilience meets Trump's miscalculations.<p>Some reports suggested that the Assembly of Experts (an 88-member body of senior Shia clerics) was considering Khamenei’s son Mojtaba, as the next Supreme Leader. However, Khamenei was not in favour of a hereditary takeover of power, and Mojtaba does not have experience in handling administrative responsibilities.</p><p>Though the larger sentiment of a majority of Iranians is against the clerical regime, the assassination of the Supreme Leader might divert the real demands of the people, which is the democratisation of governance. The regime has long faced a crisis of legitimacy, managing dissent through violent crackdowns on protesters and executions of dissidents.</p><p>Millions of people in Qom and other cities have gathered to mourn Khamenei’s killing. This momentum can be used in reclaiming the legitimacy of the clerical establishment. The protests in support of the clerical establishment and mourning over Khamenei’s martyrdom are seen beyond Iran. Indian Muslim communities (particularly Shias) in many places have gathered with the portraits of the Supreme Leader to mourn his assassination. The martyrdom will reignite global Shia solidarity.</p><p><strong>Geopolitical constraints on democracy in Iran</strong></p><p>Geopolitics and vested interests of external powers such as the United Kingdom, France, Russia (historically), and the US, especially since the 1950s, have nurtured an authoritarian Tehran, whether a monarchy or Islamic Republic. Mohammad Reza Shah, the last king of Iran, became a US stooge to counter British and Soviet aggression. After 1979, anti-US sentiments nurtured legitimacy for the authoritarian regime.</p><p>The US sanctions have deteriorated the lives of common Iranians more than harming the ruling elites. For the US and other Western forces, the Iranian nuclear policy became a red herring for creating instability without any guarantee of restoring democracy.</p><p>It must be noted that Khamenei’s killing is not just fuelling the legitimacy of the clerical establishment of the Islamic Republic, but can help Netanyahu and Trump, both facing increasing distrust among their supporters at home. Trump and Netanyahu attacked Iran and killed Khamenei, not to open the gates for human emancipation.</p><p><strong>Forging pathways to an indigenous democracy</strong></p><p>Iranians neither want an authoritarian regime nor imported democracy, nor any form of a stooge government serving external powers, especially the US. They want democracy on their own terms. The roots of democracy are indigenous and non-derivative. They draw upon precedents in Iran’s modern history, such as the Tobacco Movement (1890-1892), the Constitutional Revolution (1905-1911), nationalisation of oil by Mohammad Mosaddegh (1951-1953), and the emancipatory promises of the 1979 Revolution.</p><p>Protests in Iran have consistently been driven by public intellectuals, youth, women, students, workers, artists, and minorities. Leadership must emerge from these groups through democratically established procedures, with constitutional amendments making governance democratic in nature, or by deleting theocratic elements. This requires the removal of the position of Supreme Leader or Velayat-e Faqih.</p><p>Democracies across the world, including India, must reject the clerical establishment's disapproval of celebrating Khamenei as a hero, and support Iranians in finding the correct course of the future by establishing indigenous democracy. Iran needs leaders who can handle the West diplomatically without compromising the freedom and rights of Iranians, especially women and youth, and improve the material condition by reforming the economy. Opposition to imperialism can never be the justification for authoritarianism in any form.</p><p><em>Umesh Kumar is Assistant Professor, O P Jindal Global University, Sonipat, Haryana.</em></p><p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
