Is India-China tango on Beijing’s tune?

During the farewell to outgoing Indian Ambassador to China Pradeep Kumar Rawat, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi highlighted that in the last few months India-China relations had “embarked on the right track of improvement and development”. He said that the two sides shared more “interests than differences”. Speaking at the fourth India-China Youth dialogue, Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong argued that the “more the two countries understand each other, the closer our people will become and trust will increase”.

While there has been an uptick in positive statements from Beijing about the benefits of India-China co-operation, this dance will only be possible to Beijing’s tune.

The 2020 Galwan clashes, which destroyed the Confidence Building Mechanisms (CBMs), pushed bilateral ties into a freeze. New Delhi responded by banning Chinese apps and imposing additional restriction on Chinese companies seeking to invest in India.

Till October 2024, New Delhi’s narrative on a thaw was centred on resolving the border issue. External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar in May 2024 argued that ties are not normal “because the peace and tranquillity in the border areas has been disturbed” and “we need to resolve those issues if the relationship is to come back to normal”.

Since October 2024, India’s approach has shifted toward building trust and celebrating the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties. New Delhi has accepted Beijing’s assertion that people-to-people contact must resume. Developments have included visa issuance, direct flights, and resumption of the Mansarovar Yatra. Think tank and academic exchanges have also gained momentum.

Economic engagement has followed a similar trajectory. In July, Wang asserted that, “China is willing to strengthen communication and coordination with India to jointly safeguard the multilateral trading system and the stability of global industrial and supply chains”. At a seminar in November, Xu highlighted that China’s 15th Five-Year Plan would create opportunities for co-operation in digital technology, green energy, and advanced manufacturing.

A few days back, news reports citing government officials said that preparations were being made to resume border trade at the Lipulekh Pass, in Uttarakhand. New Delhi has also shown interest in allowing Bharat Heavy Electricals and Steel ‌Authority of India, among other firms, to acquire 21 categories of critical equipment from China. Restriction on Chinese investment has also been eased.

Trade, however, remains a sticking point. Bilateral trade in 2025 touched $155.6 billion, with India’s deficit crossing $100 billion. The Global Times argued that post-Galwan restrictions hampered the ‘Make in India’ policy, noting that though India was wary of Chinese capital fearing it could gain too much influence, it urgently needs Chinese technologies.

Despite Jaishankar’s October 2024 statement that “the disengagement process with China has been completed”, there has been no de-escalation on the border. In January, Chief of Army Staff General Upendra Dwivedi said that even though diplomatic and military engagements are helping in maintaining stability, “the Line of Actual Control (LAC) requires constant vigilance as both India and China continue to increase their presence along the border.” Around 60,00 troops are deployed on each side. India has expanded surveillance with cameras, sensors, and satellite imagery, while the Home Ministry has deployed more intelligence officials. Reports suggest Chinese disengagement is partial, with Beijing still occupying roughly 1,000 km² of territory claimed by India in eastern Ladakh.

Clearly, the border situation has not changed significantly since October 2024. Yet, New Delhi appears to have sidelined border resolution and de-escalation, instead toeing Beijing’s ‘people-to-people’ contact and ‘win-win co-operation’ narrative. Today, the trajectory of India-Chian ties appears to be largely dictated by Beijing.

India’s position is further undermined by the changing geopolitical scenarios and the United States’ imposition of unilateral and exaggerated tariffs.

In a telling episode, following China’s protests to the teaser of Salman Khan’s movie Battel of Galwan, the filmmakers changed the title to Maatrubhumi: May War Rest in Peace.

Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)