Is Xi Jinping on his way out, or consolidating power?

The Chinese president’s days-long ‘disappearance’ may well have even been engineered by him to test loyalties. This is not the first time Xi dropped out of view

Is Chinese President Xi Jinping preparing for an orderly transition when his third term ends, or is he on his way out in the way other Chinese leaders before him have been abruptly removed? Is he relinquishing some of his powers, or is he making himself more powerful? Or is his presidency unravelling behind the opacity that surrounds the functioning of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC)? 

Speculation has been rife since May-end, when Xi disappeared from public view for a couple of weeks. There were no photos or videos of him in state media from about May 20. He surfaced on June 4, when photos were published of him with the visiting President of Belarus, Alexandre Lukashenko. The next day, he and United States President Donald Trump held a long phone conversation on tariffs and other issues. 

The rumours continued, however, getting new wings when Beijing announced that he would not be attending the BRICS summit in Brazil; his first absence from the annual meeting, and when news emerged that the powerful 24-member politburo of the CPC had met under his leadership to decided that the party central committee's decision-making would be ‘standardised’ with a new regulations.

Some see in this Xi putting in place systems to delegate some of his responsibilities, or quit one of his three posts — he is the general secretary of the CPC, the President of the People's Republic of China, and the chairman of the Central Military Commission — towards a leadership transition, which could take place before his term ends in 2027.

On the other hand, it may well be the all-powerful president’s intention to entrench himself further through more ‘rule by law’. Recently, in a conversation with this author, former foreign secretary and former ambassador to China (2016-2017) Vijay Gokhale explained how Xi had used this very Chinese idea (which is different from the rule of law) to make himself more powerful. Gokhale said it was hard to see Xi relinquish any of his powers or posts, “simply because after 15 years in power, during which he has ruthlessly dealt with his enemies, real and imagined, he is sitting on the back of the tiger, and it is difficult to get off that”. 

In other words, insecurity is the other side of authoritarianism. Many have pointed to the sweeping purges in the party and military since 2023, a year after Xi began his third term. Officials said to be close to Xi were removed in these purges. Their dismissals were seen as the result of a power struggle within the CPC and the military. Some observers, especially among dissident groups living overseas, hold the view that a faction opposed to Xi has gained the upper hand in the party and the military. According to others, the purge may have been a deliberate move by Xi to consolidate his hold in both the party and the military. Gokhale, one of India's sharpest China watchers, sees the purges as an insecure Xi's “very Stalinist mode of inducing terror” to ensure the rank and file's loyalty.

A Lowy Institute analysis points out that there is little chance of anti-Xi factions taking control of the party and calling the shots as the politburo and its standing committee are packed with Xi loyalists. 

Moreover, choosing political uncertainty that will accompany a transition may not be the CPC's way forward at this time of great external flux. Even though Xi has presided over a long economic slowdown, he may also be the right person from China's point of view to negotiate with Trump. Xi forced Trump to blink, a nationalist moment in which Chinese social media erupted with memes about the US chickening out. 

The substack Sinocism pointed out on July 1, the day the CPC celebrated its 104th anniversary, the lavish praise for Xi in the People's Daily, remarking that “it does not sound like Xi’s position is in doubt, fever-dream rumors notwithstanding”.

Yet, the fact that such rumours have swirled and eddied over the last two months is itself seen as significant in a system where information is tightly controlled, and rumours are accepted as premature facts. Xi's days-long ‘disappearance’ may well have even been engineered by him to test loyalties. This is not the first time Xi dropped out of view. He ‘disappeared’ in 2012 too, at a time when he was set to succeed Hu Jintao, missing crucial party meetings and engagements. Rumours ranged from an illness to an accident.

This time too, no one really knows the truth. With the centralisation of information that Xi has implemented, little filters out of the party into the public domain. 

Xi's moment of reckoning may eventually come, but it will be “messy”, said Gohkale, predicting that as in all transitions in China's leadership except in the case Deng Xiaoping, who set the two-term limit for presidents, Xi, who did away with that rule, will not go quietly.

Nirupama Subramanian is an independent journalist. X: @tallstories.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.