Jammu and Kashmir: It is in national interest to conduct elections soon

On February 13, the Supreme Court dismissed a plea against setting up of a delimitation commission to redraw the assembly and Lok Sabha constituency boundaries in the Union Territories (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K). It ruled that the exercise of power by the government was valid under Article 370 of the Constitution, as redefined by the Union government in August 2019.

Since the challenge to the very revision of Article 370 is yet pending with the Supreme Court, the judges clarified, “Nothing stated in this judgment shall be construed as giving our imprimatur to the exercise of powers under clauses (1) and (3) of Article 370 of the Constitution.”

The judgment is not consequential to the political strategy unfolding in J&K. It merely put paid to a bid to stall or reverse the developments in Kashmir since the landmark reading down of Article 370.

Also read | Supreme Court dismisses plea against J&K delimitation

However, the judgment’s explication that it has kept clear off remarking on the legal challenges to the evacuation of Article 370 of its original substance of preserving autonomous status of J&K has, lent some cheer to Kashmiri political circles.

The contours of the government’s Kashmir strategy were spelt out at an all-party meeting in June 2021. Home Minister Amit Shah had put out that the intention was first go ahead with the delimitation, followed by elections. On the demand for statehood by the Kashmiri attendees, Prime Minister Narendra Modi assured that action would follow ‘at the right time’.

The delimitation commission’s report was released in May. It met with objections from the mainstream regional parties. The apprehension was that election results were being gerrymandered, in a manner as to beget the ambition of the ruling party at the Centre, the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), of having a Hindu Chief Minister from the Jammu belt in place.

Elections were expected early this year. However, there is little visible movement on this for now, though new electoral rolls incorporating an additional 800,000 voters has already been drawn up.

It is not as if the government is waiting for the Supreme Court to pronounce on the clutch of cases against Article 370. Opposition leaders aver that it’s the parochial aspiration of the BJP is holding up elections.

The BJP has been cautioned by the results of the District Development Council elections, held in late 2020, in which a hastily-formed loose coalition of the mainstream regional parties, the People’s Alliance for the Gupkar Declaration, pipped it at the post.

The recent enthusiastic reception of the Bharat Jodo Yatra would have cautioned it further. Even Jammuites too have developed reservations since their region is now exposed to competition and influx from the plains.

Having created an opportunity to wrest political power away from Srinagar in favour of Jammu, the BJP would want to clinch it by deliberate moves. But there is a price to pay in terms of India’s democratic credentials.

Whereas security conditions warranted prolongation of the last bout of extended presidential rule in J&K between 1990 and 1996, this time round the security indices are indubitably better. Any eyebrows raised if the elections are further delayed may not easily be brushed off with claims that India is the ‘mother of democracy’.

Persisting inordinately with the status quo in governance in J&K can impact the preparations the Narendra Modi government is making as the rotating chair of the G20 and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation for the respective summits in New Delhi.

Delay also gives negative forces an opportunity to polarise the electorate. Killings early this year in the Rajauri area and rekindling of the Village Defence Committees in response, are indicative of avoidable adverse security possibilities.

National interest would appear to be in conducting elections soon. While this may disappoint the political parties wanting clarity on statehood, they have not made their participation in UT elections conditional on grant of statehood. They may participate in elections not only to keep the BJP from gaining its ends, but also using their new perch in government, if they win, to bid more forcefully for statehood.

This should not deter the BJP. The BJP is also capable of forging an alliance on the basis of a strong showing in the Jammu belt, as it has done earlier. The experience of the elected government in Delhi in tussles with the UT Lieutenant Governor indicates that control over J&K can yet be retained by the Centre.

Thus, as Modi goes into his third national polls in 2024, Shah could yet ensure a nationalist-led government in Srinagar, enabling Modi to make the vote-catching claim he has delivered conclusively on integration of Kashmir into the majoritarian mainstream.

Ali Ahmed is a freelance strategic analyst. The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.