The Karnataka elections went on predictable lines. Any other outcome would have been counterintuitive. If the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) didn’t face a total rout, as some had anticipated, the credit must go to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the party’s ground workers. Also, Modi’s placating BJP state leader and former Chief Minister BS Yeddyurappa in the end seems to have paid off. He delivered a substantial chunk of the Lingayat vote which could have easily gone the Congress way. The Janata Dal (Secular) retaining its core base with the Vokkaligas shows Karnataka’s caste concentrations are still intact.
Simultaneously, the results of the local body elections in Uttar Pradesh were announced where the BJP swept the polls. Though the two battles were poles apart, not only in terms of geographical distance but also poll issues — seen together there are lessons for the BJP which an astute leader like Modi would not miss.
First, is about the slogan of ‘Double Engine Sarkar’ when there is actual delivery on the ground. Nothing could have demonstrated it better than the return of Yogi Adityanath defying the jinx of no government getting a second term in Uttar Pradesh. During his first term — the people of Uttar Pradesh saw the benefits of the Union and state governments acting in unison. This was supplemented by visible governance and delivery of public goods, especially during the pandemic. Karnataka was a study in contrast.
The Karnataka debacle is also a message for Modi to walk the talk of ‘Na Khaoonga, Na Khane Doonga’. The BJP tried to brazen out corruption and condoned the ineptitude of the Basavaraj Bommai administration due to its inner compulsions for neutralising Yeddyurappa’s clout, while retaining its traditional voter base, especially among the Lingayats. A classic case of you can’t have a cake and eat it too.
The same syndrome was evident, albeit in a smaller scale, in Himachal Pradesh, and it may come to haunt the BJP in other states that are going to the polls later in the year, like Madhya Pradesh. Both in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, the BJP is yet to find a solution for replacing Shivraj Singh Chouhan (who without doubt will face anti-incumbency after his fourth term) and Vasundhara Raje who carries considerable baggage from her past tenures.
Some fear the party may face a similar predicament in Maharashtra if it soon doesn’t get its act together. Now the state unit seems to be preoccupied in political power-play. Although big ticket development projects are in the pipeline, one doesn’t see similar sense of urgency on governance. Many people feel there is no discernible change in the level of corruption too. So, the Congress-Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party-led Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) government led by Uddhav Thackeray may appear to look good in hindsight.
On the other hand, while the Congress will be as always keen to shower praise on the Gandhi trio —what worked for it was a strong local leadership with a hunger to win. Inner party differences were held in check by party President Mallikarjun Kharge who acted as an elder statesman. The same formula worked in Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan. It would be a mistake to jettison Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot at this juncture in favour of Sachin Pilot.
If the BJP thinks that there would be a repeat of the 2019 phenomenon when the same electorate that voted for Congress in the 2018 Assembly elections brought back Modi with an overwhelming majority, it would be living in denial. After 10 years, the ‘Modi magic’ is bound to wane, and it has already started yielding diminishing returns. After Karnataka, the Congress is bound to regain some of its mojo. It may even gather more funds for electioneering.
So far, the states the BJP is not showing significant signs of revival are Chhattisgarh, West Bengal, and Jharkhand. Bihar is somewhat up in the air. Odisha is firmly with Naveen Patnaik. After Karnataka, the south is by and large out of bounds. Minor forays in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh are not going to yield much dividend. Notwithstanding the noise being created by K Annamalai, the BJP’s central leadership still doesn’t get the Tamil psyche. Kerala, in any case, is a non-starter. Therefore, the task is cut out for Modi and Amit Shah to protect the BJP’s traditional bastions to not lose ground before 2024.
(Sandip Ghose is current affairs commentator and marketing professional)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors' own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH
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