Maharashtra's coalition churn: Internal contradictions laid bare

For the last three decades, no party in Maharashtra has single-handedly crossed the magic figure of 145 to form a government with a clear majority. For over 25 years, politics in the state has revolved around two main coalitions, though these alliances have undergone significant churn in the last six years.

Maharashtra is now going through a phase where managing a strong coalition has become more difficult than running
a weak one.

In the 288-member Maharashtra Legislative Assembly, the BJP and its allies command a combined strength of over 230. For Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis, keeping key allies – Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – in good humour is a major task, alongside ensuring there is no bickering among the two smaller allies of the Maha Yuti or grand coalition.

Fadnavis, known as the BJP’s troubleshooter, may have to step in now as tensions triggered by the opposition’s allegations of fund diversion are escalating. According to Ambadas Danve, Leader of the Opposition in the Legislative Council, Rs 414.30 crore out of Rs 3,960 crore allocated to the Social Justice Department was diverted, while Rs 335.70 crore was diverted from the Tribal Development Department.

This drew sharp criticism from Social Justice Minister Sanjay Shirsat, a close aide of Eknath Shinde. “They diverted about Rs 7,000 crore from my department earlier during the budget, without informing
me. If the government doesn’t want the
Social Justice Department to function or spend money, they might as well shut it down,” he said.

Finance Minister Ajit Pawar defended the move, stating, “Funds for beneficiaries under the Social Justice and Tribal Welfare departments have been allocated appropriately. This is not unusual. The decision was taken
in the Cabinet.” The simmering discontent is evident. 

Historically, the two dominant coalitions in Maharashtra have been the Shiv Sena-BJP alliance and the Congress-NCP Democratic Front.

From 1995 to 1999, the Shiv Sena-BJP coalition held power, during which time the state saw two chief ministers – the late Manohar Joshi and Narayan Rane. The alliance had been forged by Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray and BJP stalwarts Pramod Mahajan and Gopinath Munde.

From 1999 to 2014, the Congress-NCP Democratic Front was in power and saw four CMs--Vilasrao Deshmukh, Sushilkumar Shinde, Ashok Chavan and Prithviraj Chavan--serving during the Manmohan Singh-led UPA regime at the Centre.

In 2014, Indian politics witnessed a resurgence of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Narendra Modi coming to the national scene; Maharashtra politics also shifted. The MahaYuti alliance began taking shape. However, just ahead of the Assembly polls, the Shiv Sena broke away. To everyone’s surprise – including Shiv Sena Chief Uddhav Thackeray’s – the BJP secured the support of Sharad Pawar’s NCP, allowing Devendra Fadnavis to become the CM. The Shiv Sena later joined the government, and the NCP exited.

The year 2019 marked a defining year in Maharashtra politics. The Shiv Sena aligned with the Congress-NCP alliance to form Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). Fadnavis failed to form a government, and his attempts to stitch a coalition with Ajit Pawar also failed.

Thackeray became CM with the MVA in power. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah had other plans. They engineered splits in the Shiv Sena and NCP in June-July 2022 and June-July 2023.

In June 2022, Eknath Shinde became the chief minister with Fadnavis as his deputy. A year later, in July 2023, Ajit Pawar was sworn in as another deputy CM.

After the October 2024 polls, the BJP emerged as the largest party with 132 seats – just short of the 145 majority mark. The Shiv Sena won 57 seats and the NCP 41.

Given the realities of coalition politics and the national scenario, Ajit Pawar quickly accepted the post of deputy CM. However, convincing Shinde to do the same proved more difficult for the BJP.

The root of this problem lay in the events of 2019. When the Thackeray-led MVA came to power, Ajit Pawar, then deputy CM and finance minister, was accused by Shiv Sena rebels of blocking funds for their party. Later, when Shinde became the CM, Fadnavis retained the key finance portfolio.

When Ajit Pawar reclaimed the finance portfolio in July 2023, it sparked discontent within the Shiv Sena ranks.

Now, they accuse Ajit Pawar of diverting funds, including from the flagship Mukhya Mantri Majhi Ladki Bahin Yojana,
which played a key role in the coalition’s electoral success.

Pawar also took a swipe at Shinde for skipping the NCP’s Gauravshali Maharashtra festival between May 1-4 to mark 65 years of the state’s formation, during which former CMs were felicitated.

Among those invited were BJP’s Devendra Fadnavis, Eknath Shinde, Narayan Rane (then a Shiv Sena CM, now with BJP), NCP (SP) supremo Sharad Pawar (a four-time CM), Uddhav Thackeray and Congress leaders Prithviraj Chavan and Sushilkumar Shinde. While Sharad Pawar, Thackeray, didn’t attend, Fadnavis, Chavan, and Rane were present. However, Shinde skipped it and deputed Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik to represent him – an act that did not sit well with Pawar.

“This was a felicitation of former CMs. It is fine if he (Shinde) couldn’t attend, but deputing someone on behalf of a former CM doesn’t look good. I request Shinde not to send representatives for such events in the future,” Pawar said.

The Shinde-led Sena is also uneasy about a possible merger between the NCP and the NCP (SP), which could further dilute its influence with the MahaYuti.