How to bend the growth curve

The RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, with his recent annual Vijaya dashami address followed by the discussion on “population imbalance” at the RSS national executive meeting in October, has reignited the population question. India is set to become the most populous country by 2023. Is overpopulation the central problem that we need to address urgently?

This is a simple enough question with an unequivocal answer: Yes, it is. Consider these stark facts: The current global population is at 8 billion and continues to rise. The United Nations projects it to cross 8.6 billion by 2030, 9.8 billion by 2050, and 11.2 billion by 2100. While the average fertility rate will decrease, that effect will be overwhelmed by the absolute numbers.

The UN projects over a half of this growth to 2100 will be concentrated in just nine countries, and India expectedly will be at the head of that list. Most of these populations will be rather poor, even if less so by current standards, and well below the standards of living in the western world, which means their per-capita consumption of resources will be fairly low.

Nonetheless, the cumulative addition of 2.1 billion people by 2050 will exert enormous strain -- from additional resource use and emissions, including of greenhouse gases. Slowing population growth by a substantial percentage would be one way to mitigate climate change impact and enhance environmental sustainability, at least by 2050.

However, the weight of numbers, even if part of the spectre of human impact on this beautiful, blue, finite planet, does not mean that the population question is the central issue to ponder the future of India’s economy and society. The population question is ethically contested and politically fraught -- recall the Turkman Gate incident in 1976, or more recently the Roe v. Wade judgement of the US Supreme court. When political leaders raise population control as a policy concern, the results of such action often run counter to the intended objectives.

Worse still, in practice, population control action almost always targets the poor and the disadvantaged, overtaken often by racism or xenophobia, lurking in the shadows. It is almost always the case that it is “them, not us” that need reducing. History records several such examples. Closer home and in our own time, it is, in the ultimate analysis, the demographic question that is at the root of the contested and deeply polarising issues of the CAA and the NPR.

There are better ways of addressing overpopulation, for instance educating girls, rather than merely talking about it. Three approaches are fundamental to a sustainable solution -- especially in countries like our own, characterised by a young, growing population but with considerable poverty and inequality.

First, women empowerment is an effective population action strategy. The population question is a numbers game. More people means more consumption, and hence more emissions. The challenge is to empower women to make their own decisions on when to marry and when to have children. That is the only way to slow the growth of population. Specifically, since most of the new people are going to come from poor or disadvantaged communities, the question is how to break the patterns of patriarchy and restore to the woman control over her own body. This must be achieved through a combination of justice and empowering laws that can help enhance women’s agency.

There is considerable evidence on the importance of raising awareness and informed advocacy on the advantages of delaying the age of marriage, delaying the birth of the first child, and ensuring a proper spacing of children. Sustained community engagement has, across cultural settings, enabled women to have children when they choose.

Second, dedicate greater resources and efforts to advance the participation of women in the workforce, giving them access to income opportunities outside the home, thus providing the women economic independence, the resources, and the choice, to opt for smaller families.

This is the greater challenge. India has the dubious distinction of having the lowest Female Labour Force Participation Rate (FLFPR) in the region, at about 20 per cent in 2022, declining from 30 per cent in 1990. What should be of concern to the governance triumvirate -- the State, the market, and the community -- is that the FLFPR has been declining precipitously. Evidence from recent studies shows that India’s FLFPR now stands above only a handful of countries; and is lower than that of Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and even Somalia. We must seriously examine why this is happening and more crucially, why it matters.

Finally, if our concern is the burden of rising consumption and greater emissions as a consequence of population growth, our gaze should be on those who will consume and emit the most -- the wealthy. There is enough evidence that the richest 10 per cent of the population is responsible for nearly half the lifestyle consumption emissions, while the poorest 50 per cent is responsible for a mere 10 per cent. If you approach the problem from this perspective, of reducing income inequality, the cause will find many allies. Income inequality is a priority concern of people all over the world, and it should be ours too, and with a sense of urgency.

These are the three most powerful levers to bend the population curve and will help contribute to the most effective solution to the problem, without any of the political baggage. If we are truly concerned about demography and resource constraints, we must transform into the champions of female empowerment rather than blaming a specific community, contrary to facts, for the burgeoning population. Higher fertility rates, where they prevail, are the result of lower education, higher infant mortality, greater preference for sons, and lack of access to quality family-planning services – factors common across all castes, ethnicities, languages, religions and geographies in our country. Our efforts must be directed at changing this social equilibrium. There is much to gain from empowering women and dismantling patriarchy, not least a more equal, just and compassionate society that all Indians deserve.

(The writer is Director, Public Affairs Centre, Bengaluru)