JOIN USModi govt marks 7 years, NDA forgets its 23rd birthday
The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre completed seven years on Sunday. Not many call it as such anymore, which is just as well since few remembered, least of all its constituents, that the NDA turned 23 a fortnight back.
The NDA, founded on May 15, 1998, is still a 27-party behemoth, but a shadow of its earlier federal self. Apart from the BJP, only nine other NDA members have any representation in the Lok Sabha.
Several of the NDA’s oldest constituents – the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), Shiv Sena and Shiromani Akali Dal – have exited the alliance in the last couple of years.
The attrition has been sharper since 2019. Not only the old, but some of the BJP’s newer friends have also bid it goodbye, including West Bengal’s Gorkha Janmukti Morcha, Goa Forward Party (GFP) and Rajasthan-based Rashtriya Loktantrik Party.
Two of the NDA’s constituents, and after the BJP its largest in terms of Lok Sabha representation, are from Bihar, and both are upset. In the Bihar Assembly polls in 2020, the BJP sacrificed ally Chirag Paswan-led Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) on the altar of its electoral expediency. In Arunachal Pradesh, six JD (U) legislators joined the BJP in December.
Allies complain of the BJP not following ‘gathbandhan dharma’, but try to keep on the right side of the ruling party in Delhi that has a brute majority and controls central agencies. But as the Sena and Akalis have shown, the battle for political survival can push even the most loyal of allies to sever ties.
As the BJP continues to face criticism on its handling of the Covid-19 crisis and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, according to recent opinion polls, loses popularity, the next round of Assembly polls in February 2022 could contribute to further withering away of the NDA.
The BJP might have a massive majority in the Lok Sabha. It can muster a majority by reaching out to regional parties or take the money bill route to neutralize its lack of numbers in the Rajya Sabha. But it cannot do without allies in the states.
In the polls held for five legislative assemblies in 2021, the BJP was expected to do well in only one state. It retained its government in Assam, but less than a per cent of the vote share separated the victors, the BJP-led NDA, and the vanquished, the Congress-led Mahajot (grand alliance).
The BJP’s win in Assam was not possible without the help of its allies – the Asom Gana Parishad and United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL).
The BJP’s other success in the recently concluded polls came in Puducherry. Here again, the BJP could not have won six of the nine seats it contested if not for the support from its senior partner in the union territory, the All India N.R. Congress.
If the BJP held sway in only one of the five assemblies before the recently held polls, it has much more to lose in the next round of Assembly polls to five states in February 2022.
Apart from Punjab, which has a Congress government, the BJP currently runs governments in the other four – Goa, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Manipur.
In the 2017 Assembly polls in Manipur, the Congress party emerged as the single largest party with 28-seats in a 60-member Assembly. However, it was the BJP with 21-seats that formed the government with the help of the Naga People’s Front, National Peoples Party and LJP.
The story was somewhat similar in Goa in the 2017 polls. The Congress was the single largest party with 17-seats in the 40-member Assembly. But the BJP, with 13-seats, formed the government with the help of the GFP, Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and independents.
The GFP’s relations with the BJP soured in 2019 when its legislators were dropped from the council of ministers, but it officially walked out of the NDA in April this year complaining of the Centre’s “anti-Goan policies”. The GFP is all set to ally with the Congress for the Assembly polls.
The Pramod Sawant-led BJP government in Goa has faced flak for its handling of Covid-19. Alarm bells have also started ringing for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand, while Punjab is already a lost cause for the party.
The BJP has eight months to recover. It would not only need the help of existing and potential allies in these states to retain power, but also refocus its energies on providing succour to people and efficient rollout of social welfare schemes.
The Modi government has taken small steps in this direction in the last few days. It has promised to loosen the purse strings of the PM-Cares Fund for Covid-19 orphans and is reportedly mulling another Covid-19 relief package. With soaring inflation and joblessness, will only a good monsoon help the BJP return to power in these four states?
Losses would not only influence the Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat Assembly polls slated for December 2022 but could shake the faith in the BJP of its alliance partners, including in states where it runs coalition governments, like Haryana and Bihar.