Mukul Roy's summer somersault leaves BJP sweating

Rough weather ahead for the BJP as more departures imminent

The year 2021 was supposed to be the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s year in West Bengal. Instead, it has turned out to be a nightmarish one, with the saffron party finding itself in a muddle.

Let us go back in a time machine to March and April. The Assembly elections in West Bengal were just around the corner, and the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) was reportedly on the backfoot. Mamata Banerjee and her army tried to salvage momentum as several TMC leaders, notably Suvendu Adhikari and Rajib Banerjee, decided to jump the ship and bet on a BJP victory.

On the other hand, the saffron camp was high on confidence. The BJP had never been a strong force in Bengal. Another national party, the Congress, had tasted success in the state, but not the BJP. Even in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, when the nation jubilantly embraced the 'Modi wave', the BJP managed to win only two seats in Bengal. Two years later, the BJP won one more seat in the state Assembly elections.

Also read — In massive jolt to BJP, Mukul Roy returns to Trinamool Congress

But as has been the case so often for the BJP under the leadership of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, the party turned things around and astonishingly secured 18-seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

It strengthened its organisational structure in Bengal thanks to the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) and inducting some notable leaders who knew how to take on the Mamata Banerjee juggernaut. These leaders would eventually revamp the state BJP and steer it to become the main Opposition party in the state, which until then unchartered territory for the saffron machine. One of these leaders was Mukul Roy.

Also Read | Difficult to remain with BJP in West Bengal anymore: Mukul Roy

Roy was one of the founders of the TMC in 1998 and touted as one of the brains behind the party's landslide win in the 2011 Bengal Assembly elections, which saw the demise of the 34-year-old Left regime. It catapulted Roy to an iconic figure in Bengal politics, and he became one of the most trusted lieutenants of Mamata Banerjee. But then, he clashed with the party leadership and joined the BJP in November 2017. It was the first departure that jolted the TMC, the degree of which would be matched years later by the exit of Suvendu Adhikari.

Roy was never the face of the Bengal BJP, but he helped to strengthen the party. His decision to rejoin the TMC in the aftermath of the BJP's defeat in the Assembly elections has sent the top saffron leaders in the state scrambling for excuses. Since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Bengal BJP has never really entrusted leaders who have been in the party for a long time with significant responsibilities. On the eve of the Assembly elections, the party welcomed with open hands the TMC turncoats. Much to the old party leaders' disappointment, most turncoats got tickets to fight the polls. State BJP president Dilip Ghosh repeatedly attacked the turncoats without naming anyone, and it was clear that anger was brewing within the party.

Also Read | More leaders will be coming back to TMC, hints Mamata

The defeat exposed the state BJP's lack of cohesiveness. Former TMC leader Rajib Banerjee expressed his dissatisfaction and reportedly wished to return. BJP leader Anupam Hazra lashed out at the party leadership for not giving enough chance to the loyal guards, and Ghosh continued to take digs whenever asked about the prospects of the turncoats going back to the TMC.

Roy's exit can open the floodgates of departures from the BJP to TMC. Most of the turncoats reportedly fear losing their political relevance by staying in the opposition camp. And now the question can arise in their mind: "If Roy, the BJP national vice president, can leave, then why can't we?"

Further exodus can push the state BJP back to where it started, something that the TMC would dearly want as the party looks to spread its wings outside Bengal. The saffron party cannot afford to go on the backfoot further after the 2021 dejection. The departure of Roy could not have come at a worse time for the Hindutva party, and Mamata Banerjee has hinted that more TMC turncoats can return in the future.

The BJP has now lost momentum in Bengal and must look to arrest the slide if the party harbours ambitions of breaching the unconquered citadel in the next election. The biggest challenge for the BJP now is to steady the ship without the expert guidance of Roy. And it looks like that the party will experience rough weather for some time in Bengal.