Nawaz may return to Pakistan to find that he faces a Hobson’s choice

Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) chief and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is expected to return to Pakistan from London where he has been living in self-exile for almost four years. His return may happen soon, or in a matter of weeks and months. While some senior members of his party believe that his return will revive its sagging morale, others in his brother Shehbaz Sharif’s government are hoping that he will perform some miracle to revive the deteriorating economy of the country. After the Pakistan’s Economic Affairs Minister Sardar Ayaz Sadiq made this claim on TV, talk of an economic revival is doing the rounds in the corridors of power in Islamabad.

Nawaz Sharif’s party has already begun political campaign plans for him by issuing strong statements against former PM Imran Khan and his failure to reign in terrorist groups in the northern areas, especially Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where the Tehreek-e-Taliban-e-Pakistan (TTP) has virtually replaced the Pakistan Army and taken control over the political establishment there.

In December 2022 Australia, UK, US and Saudi Arabia governments had warned their citizens to avoid public places in the wake of terror attacks as well as mob fury. The Chinese appear to be coming under attack in two areas -- in the north, close to KP, by the TTP (Pakistan Taliban), and in the south, near the Gwadar port, by Baluchistan Liberation Front and other armed groups which are against Pakistani rule and Chinese support to Pakistan Army in their suppression of the Baluchistan liberation struggle.

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The recent attack in Peshawar killing more than a hundred people who were offering prayers inside a police building indicates two aspects of the terrorist problem. The TTP’s capability to carry out deadly terror attacks in urban areas with sophisticated explosives goes to prove their increased capabilities and external support, presumably from Afghan Taliban groups. The other point is that the TTP, with its headquarters in eastern Afghanistan, appears to be inching closer to their agenda of wresting a large chunk of the northern part on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border and declare it free from Islamabad. If this materialises, it will not only break Pakistan but deal a severe blow to some six major CPEC projects in KP and POK. Touted as a project singularly responsible for the revival of Pakistan’s economy and capable of adding 3% to the country’s GDP, the CPEC seems to be moving closer to cold storage.

Barely a week after issuing an advisory to its citizens to be cautious while in Pakistan due to the deteriorating security situation, Beijing has shut down the consular section of its embassy in Islamabad until further notice, ostensibly due to technical issues. The increasing frequency of attacks is compelling Chinese workers and engineers to flee Pakistan even as Islamabad had assured the Chinese of full protection. There have been attacks on Chinese teams working on several CPEC projects. These terror attacks could force the Chinese to abort these projects, adding greater velocity to Pakistan’s economic tailspin.

Meanwhile, Pakistan has been forced to announce a “mini budget” under IMF instruction to reduce its budget deficit and increase tax collection before the start of the final round of talks to approve a $1.2 billion loan. The mini budget levied an additional 18% tax on fuel and some other items, causing fuel prices to go through the roof, while the government has stopped supply of subsidised wheat. As a result, the country is experiencing one of its worst-ever food crisis, with riotous mobs in Baluchistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa baying for the blood of army personnel and politicians.

In such testing times, it is doubtful if Nawaz Sharif will step into this quagmire or wait for the IMF bailout to come through and things settle down. While Baluchistan and Sindh have accused Islamabad of bringing the situation to such a pass, voices in the POK are openly advocating for support from India. Shehbaz Sharif has already offered to hold peace talks with India, with the UAE’s mediation. Nawaz could, on his return, build on his brother’s peace bid and seek more help from India. Two strong Arab countries, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, have already told Pakistan to mend its relations with India and not to continue to harp on the Kashmir issue. Earlier, much to the discomfort of Islamabad, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) had refused to call a meeting to condemn India for abrogating Article 370.

For Nawaz, seeking India’s assistance without discussing Kashmir could be detrimental in an election year, but without India’s quick help, Pakistan’s crisis could spiral out of control. Will he make the wise choice for his country or will he look for only his own political survival?

(Seshadri Chari reads between the lines on big national and international developments from his vantage point in the BJP and the RSS.)