Pahalgam Terror Attack | Can China afford to still back Pakistan?

The April 22 terror attack in Pahalgam took the lives of 26 innocent civilians and injured scores more. The attack received a severe response from the Government of India, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has asserted that the terrorists “will be served with the harshest response”.

While the global response has been sympathetic towards India and condemning the attacks, the United States has called both parties to look for a ‘responsible solution’. The ‘all-weather friendship’ between China and Pakistan calls for a look at the Chinese response. The immediate Chinese response to the attacks has followed the expected tone of friendship and support towards Pakistan. The Chinese foreign ministry announced that during a phone call between Wang Yi and Ishaq Dar, Beijing supported an “impartial investigation” into the incident. Wang also reiterated that, “exercise restraint, move toward each other, and work to deescalate tensions”. China has also supported Islamabad “in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests”.

An overview of the statements highlights that till now Beijing’s tone has been one of sounding restraint and balance, quite contrary to its stance after the terror attacks at Uri and Pathankot. Post-Uri, Pakistani newspaper Dawn reported that the Chinese premier, during a meeting with Nawaz Sharif in New York, “ … assured that China would continue to support Pakistan’s stance on Kashmir” and one cannot ignore that Beijing vetoed the listing of JeM chief Mazood Azhar on United Nations blacklist and terror list after the Pathankot attacks till 2019.

A thaw

The root of China’s controlled responses this time can be found in the backdrop of the recent India-China relations. After a four-and-a-half-year freeze in bilateral relations following the violent Galwan clashes in 2020, both sides showed signs of a thaw in October. After the resumption of patrolling in Demchok and Depsang in Ladakh, there are also talks of de-escalation on the LAC and resumption of people-to-people contacts. Talks have been concluded regarding the restarting of direct flights and the Mansarovar Yatra by June.

The push to resume people-to-people contact has come from Beijing, and it has also issued around 85,000 visas to Indians between January and April. China’s Ambassador to India Xu Feihong is keen to have more ‘friends’ visiting China. This year also marks the 75th anniversary of the diplomatic ties, and the two sides have shared positive messages.

Trade war impact

The ongoing trade war between the US and China may have also played a crucial role in Beijing’s controlled response in supporting Pakistan. US President Donald Trump has imposed a 145% tariff on Chinese goods, forcing Beijing to re-examine its trade and investments. This has also made India a viable alternative to Chinese investments. Beijing does not want to lose access to the Indian markets and has even shown some keenness to get into joint ventures with minority ownership. This is also indicative of the fact that the Chinese economy has been facing a major slowdown and has been reporting just 5% growth rates. China has been struggling to regain the economic growth rates post-COVID-19; and, given the current global scenario, it cannot afford to alienate India further.

Another factor may be the rising attacks targeting Chinese investments and nationals in Pakistan. The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), with an expected investment of $62 billion, has faced multiple roadblocks. Because of the consistent terror attacks, the most recent being the March hijack of Jaffar Express which resulted in the death of 31 civilians, Beijing has decided to deploy its own security personnel for the protection of its workers and engineers. Around 30,000 Chinese nationals are involved in various projects under the aegis of CPEC. This is a clear indication that Beijing does not trust the Pakistani defence and security apparatus to safeguard its interests anymore. In addition, Pakistan’s external debt is estimated to be around $100 billion, and Islamabad owes around 30% of this to Beijing.

The China-Pakistan all-weather friendship has been one of the major roadblocks in improving India-China ties. It appears that the recent geopolitical environment and the current global economic realities may limit Beijing’s response. The benefits of easing relations with New Delhi way outweigh the benefits of antagonising it. The trade between the two sides is more than $130 billion, and India appears to be a better option for investment than Pakistan.

One also cannot ignore the fact that China will not be keen to get overtly involved in a conflict between India and Pakistan, as it would squarely alienate it further. Above all, given the increasing Chinese investments in South Asia, Beijing will hope for peace in the region.

Given all these factors, the question is: How long can China condone Pakistan’s support of terrorism?

(Gunjan Singh is Associate Professor, OP Jindal Global University.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.