Can India handle climate change?

In 2018, the IPCC in its Special Report 1.5, gave a clear warning that we have just 12 years to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C and avoid catastrophic impacts. The last decade witnessed extreme weather events at a greater frequency and intensity. The irreversible changes in our natural systems will definitely increase the extreme weather events and other climate change risks or hazards.

India is ranked among the countries that are most vulnerable to climate change. This is due to our tropical and subtropical climate and overwhelming dependence of majority Indians on nature for livelihood. By the end of 2030, India’s temperature is projected to rise by 1.7 to 2 degree C. This will result in an increase in heatwaves by eight folds. Heatwaves are an occupational health hazard, especially for manual labourers. As per ILO, by 2030, due to global warming, India is set to lose productivity equivalent to 34 billion jobs. Besides this, climate change is already wreaking havoc in the agrarian sector. In 2019, about 45 % of India was under drought and more than 12 states saw devastating floods. Farmers in the Indo Gangetic plains will come under severe stress due to rising temperatures and frequent droughts. The rising temperature also alters the pest cycle and rainfall pattern, making farming even more challenging.

The coastal areas are set to face more devastating cyclones like the ones faced in 2019. With melting glaciers, icesheets and increase in ocean temperature, major cities like Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai are going to be severely affected by sea level rise and salt water intrusion. This will put lives of fisherfolk at serious risk.

Dealing with such a crisis requires strong adaptive and resilience measures. The Indian Government has been trying to address the problem through the National Action Plan and State Action Plans on Climate Change. These Action Plans aim to work through 8 missions covering agriculture, habitat, energy efficiency, water, afforestation, Himalyan ecosystems, Solar energy and strategic knowledge. The NAPCC dates back to 2008. Despite missing its targets, there have been no significant efforts on revamping these missions. As per a report of the Centre for Science and Environment, these missions suffer from lack of integrated approach across sectors, lack of adequate funds, lack of clarity on objectives and monitoring.

India’s level of preparedness can be judged from the fact that we do not even have micro level data about climate projections or trends. Professor NH Ravindranath of IISc, who leads the first national study on climate data, states that for actual planning, adaptation and helping communities we need good climate change projections down to the district and village level. However, there is no plan for getting such data. The current efforts are only to get broad national level trend.

We need to identify institutions, network them, provide required infrastructure and train staffs to produce local level vulnerability reports. In a conversation, Dr D Raghunandan of Delhi Science Forum, stated that most research institutions are plagued by a lack of adequate funding. In addition to climate data modeling, he emphasized the need of collection of data, use of this data in planning and mapping the risks like sea level rise.

The next challenge is to provide access to such data and an early warning system to inform the vulnerable sections of society. The cyclone Phani could inflict lesser casualties due to effective early warning system and strong relief infrastructure. In addition to this, considering the increased frequency, we need concrete mechanism to help the disaster victims recover and resettle. Livelihoods like farming need to be made more resilient through invention of new methods, raw materials and building capacities among the local communities. As cities grow, Urban infrastructure needs significant restructuring to adapt to increased rains and heatwaves.

While development catering to the basic needs of the people will remain at the centerstage of planning, the development plans will reach fruition only when made ‘climate proof’. We need to make smart choices and decisions to simultaneously achieve climate mitigation, climate adaptation and our development goals.

(The writer is a student of NLSIU)