If the hawa blows from the west in UP polls, BJP will have a tough time

East to west or west to east? This is a common question many would ask in Uttar Pradesh days ahead of the announcement of an election schedule in India’s electorally most significant state, be it polls to the Lok Sabha or the state Assembly. And mind you, every other voter in this most populous state is an inquisitive political animal, like in Bihar, and would ask this question. It was no different ahead of the announcement of the current Assembly poll schedule. The Election Commission has, of course, answered it – the election caravan will travel from western UP to the eastern part via the central and Bundelkhand regions over seven phases.

But then, why does this question even crop up in Uttar Pradesh? Such a question is hardly asked in any other state. Is there any political significance to it? Will it make or mar the chances of any political party? Will the scheduling influence the voting pattern? Well, in the current, hot political scenario, with no-holds-barred electioneering by the parties that matter, it would.

The western districts of the state will go to polls in the first three phases (some politically key ones include Meerut, Baghpat, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, Shamli, Moradabad, Rampur, Bareilly, Pilibhit, Shahjahanpur, Agra, Mainpuri, Mathura, Aligarh, Etah, Hathras, Etawah, Farrukhabad). Politically and geographically, some of these parts are closer to Delhi, especially the districts of Noida, Ghaziabad, Meerut, Baghpat, Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar, the brass city of Moradabad.

Polling in the next phases takes place in central UP districts, such as Lakhimpur, where protesting farmers were run over and killed, allegedly by the son of Union Minister Ajay Mishra, and Kanpur, Lucknow, etc. Then, finally, on to the eastern region’s Rae Bareli, Amethi, Allahabad, Ayodhya, Varanasi, Gorakhpur — where Yogi Adityanath will contest — among others.

The BJP had done exceedingly well in 2017 in the west. Of the 58 seats that go to polls in the first phase, it had won some three-fourths of them. The scene was no different in the other western UP areas. Jats and Muslims form the core of the voters here, especially in the first two phases – they form 30-50% of voters in several seats. The districts that go to polls in the first phase are politically sensitive and communally polarised.

What happens in Delhi perhaps influences these western areas more than the far-off regions of eastern UP. Importantly, the UP-Delhi border areas were the nerve centres of the farmers’ agitation which is seen to be having a huge impact on the UP outcome, especially in the western region. Also, it was the Jat community that was at the forefront of the agitation – and Jats are also the prominent community concentrated in the west.

It is believed that this time, western UP is up against the BJP and may favour the RLD-Samajwadi Party combine. Incidentally, RLD is helmed by Jayant Chowdhary, son of Ajit Singh and grandson of former Prime Minister Charan Singh, considered the most prominent Jat leaders of UP. Also, there are the lasting, horrific images of bodies of those who died of Covid floating on the Ganga or cremated on its banks, which has forced BJP onto the backfoot.

The BJP has a problem on another front, too. The west is also the sugarcane belt of UP; farmers here are up in arms against the Yogi Adityanath government for not resolving their demands, which include payment of dues by sugar mills, minimum support price (MSP) for cane, withdrawing cases filed against farmers for stubble burning, and increased electricity charges.

Communal riots

The BJP has done well in western UP since 2014. One of the main reasons cited was the large-scale communal riots in Muzaffarnagar and neighbouring districts in 2013. That pitted the Jats against the Muslims and brought the former close to the BJP. However, this time, with the RLD and SP coming together, the warring communities are said to be united, backing the ‘gathbandhan’. The farmers’ agitation is said to have revived the broken communal harmony in the region.

So, if this region favours the anti-BJP forces, will the other parts of UP, especially the eastern part, go with them? “Hawa paschim se chalti hai,” central minister and BJP leader Sanjiv Balyan, a prominent Jat face from western UP, had once said in an interview. If that indeed happens, BJP may be in for trouble.

Interestingly, it did happen in the past three elections. Polling took place from west to east in 2014, 2019 (both Lok Sabha) and 2017 (Assembly), and the BJP romped home in all these elections with stupendous wins. The momentum gained from the robust performance of the BJP in the west in all these elections was carried on to the east, as the results showed.

Reports had it that the BJP wanted the elections to start from the east, considering the farmers’ ire in the west. However, after several BJP leaders who hail from the east, including ministers and MLAs, quit the party recently, its leaders may not be unhappy that elections would start from the west.

The ticket distribution by SP-RLD in western UP is not without problems. Some of the seats have seen a ruckus between groups of the two parties; in some seats, SP candidates are fighting on the RLD symbol. Many Jat leaders are unhappy over the candidate selection by RLD, or that some particular seats have been given to the SP.

Interestingly, the BSP had traditionally done well in the west but its strength declined drastically in 2017 and 2019. Bhim Party leader Chandrashekar Azad ‘Ravan’ hails from this region, but he has now said he will contest against Yogi Adityanath in Gorakhpur in the east. It is not that only BJP and RLD-SP are contesting in the west. There are other parties too, like Congress, Asaduddin Owaisi’s MIM, and others.

Check out latest DH videos here