Imran’s hit-wicket: He didn’t play ‘Sharif’ with Pak army

If anyone in Delhi believed that Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s thumbs up to Prime Minister Narendra Modi for playing Washington off against Moscow over Ukraine was unqualified praise, or even a left-handed compliment at best, he should think again.

That googly wasn’t aimed at Delhi at all.

It was Rawalpindi, the army headquarters and the real power centre of Pakistan that was the target of Imran’s ill-tempered inswinger; the unspoken implication being that it wasn’t him and his aspirations to be the leader of the Muslim world which had irked long-time financial and ideological mentor, Saudi Arabia, but the army that had run Pakistan aground.

That swipe had been preceded only days earlier with his very public jab at the khakhis - “All those who remain neutral are just animals!”

Why was the once-popular cricketer-turned-politician lashing out at the men who had propelled him to power? While no political commentator has yet dared to poke that bear, choosing instead to amplify the manufactured narratives on how he had reduced the economy to a shambles, the reason that the army has quietly dropped the ‘Kaptaan’ from their home team, lies elsewhere.

The signs were there. The first and clearest that it was ‘game over’ for Imran Khan came with the Pakistan army’s no-frills announcement that they would not take sides in the no-confidence motion against the very man they had ‘selected’ for the office of prime minister.

That the no-confidence motion was tabled by 100 Opposition lawmakers from the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) and the Pakistan People’s Party on March 8 — it will be held this Friday (March 25) in the National Assembly — could not have been done without the army’s active prodding.

There’s more. Since a no-confidence motion, backed only by a 100 Members of the National Assembly would have come to nought, Imran, who has steadily lost support within his own Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaaf party, found overnight that he had lost the backing of 12 of his own MNAs. With that defection, his 155-member legislature party – the majority mark lies at 172 in the 342-member Assembly – was reduced to a minority beyond repair.

Late on Wednesday night, after Imran’s stream of invective against his former colleagues (among other things, he said no one would marry the MNAs sons and daughters), another 15 members of the PTI followed suit. The Opposition, which includes the colourful head of the Jamaat-Ulema-Islam (Fazlur), the head of the umbrella opposition grouping, the Pakistan Democratic Movement, now claims that other parties, including members of the Muttahida Quami Movement (Pakistan), the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) and, critically, the Pakistan Muslim League–Quaid, who together make up 17 MNAs, would also withdraw support.

Underscoring their unease over what Imran Khan could do to settle scores — the number of disappearances of political rivals had reached unprecedented levels under his watch — the MNAs are holed up in the neighbouring state of Sindh, hiding out at Sindh House, Karachi, under the protection of the Pakistan People’s Party. An attack on the premises by PTI workers was quickly broken up.

If that wasn’t a strong-enough message, Imran should have seen the writing on the wall when former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shahbaz Sharif of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) were cleared of all corruption charges by Broadsheet, a UK-based assets recovery firm which had worked in tandem with the very same National Accountability Bureau that had been tasked to nail the Sharifs. Jailed, vilified, the elder Sharif had been virtually pushed out of the country.

Broadsheet’s CEO Kaveh Moussavi saying that he had not found a “scintilla of evidence… not one rupee of assets that can be attributed to either Mr Nawaz Sharif or any member of his family,” robbed Imran of one of his biggest weapons, his reputation as being the only Mr Clean.

Sharif, a three-time former PM, who had mounted a campaign against his bete noire, former army chief and president Gen. Pervez Musharraf who had removed him from office, had clearly paid the price when the Pakistan Army backed and all but created a popular movement against him in 2018, marshalling hundreds of protesters to the centre of the capital, bringing the city and the Sharif government to a virtual standstill.

The protests were headed by Imran Khan, who as the new Mr Clean promised a “Naya Pakistan.” The puppeteer behind the scenes was Gen. Faiz Hameed, the suave head of the country’s counter-intelligence body, Inter-Services Intelligence, widely seen as having allegedly, with the army’s active backing, skewed the election results in Imran’s favour.

It is that bond, forged between the then ISI chief and Imran Khan, the political wannabe, that lies at the heart of the current moves to remove the latter from office, two years before his term ends.

In the fractious debates and harsh critiques of Imran by Pakistan’s political commentators these last few weeks, it is the mishandling of the economy and his arrogant treatment of his party faithful that are cited as the reason for the need to change prime ministerial horses mid-stream. But the real story lies in the spectacular falling out between Pakistan’s Army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa and Prime Minister Imran Khan, which began late last year when he took several weeks—not 24 hours, as is the norm – to clear the extension of Gen. Bajwa’s term as army chief. Conversely, he took no time at all in signing off on the appointment of Gen. Faiz Hameed as Corps Commander of the XI Corps, Peshawar. Gen. Faiz, who aspires to succeed Bajwa as the army chief when the latter’s term ends in November 2022, would have been ineligible for the post unless he had battlefield experience.

Insiders have revealed to this reporter that the anger within the army against the “ungrateful” Imran began with Faiz’ appointment, which would have ensured that not only would the remaining four serving Corps Commanders be overlooked for the post of army chief in November, so would at least another five generals waiting in the wings. In addition, it would also mean that as a quid pro quo, Gen. Faiz would sign off on keeping Imran Khan in office as prime minister for another consecutive term.

Imran’s attempt at damage control, saying he wasn’t talking about the army at all when he likened ‘neutrals’ to animals, and that his rapport with the armed forces remained as vigorous as ever, isn’t cutting any ice. Not when his advisers have only riled Bajwa further, by letting it be known that they were actively looking at picking a new army chief.

The role of Riyadh — which gave refuge to Nawaz Sharif when he was released from prison by Gen Pervez Musharraf — cannot be discounted either. Imran’s “disrespectful behaviour” when Saudi Arabia’s powerful Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman was accorded a less than royal welcome by the Pakistani leader, who drove him in his personal car rather in an official cavalcade, is cited. He is said to have made matters worse by flying to Malaysia where the Malaysian leader Mahathir Mohammed and Turkish President Reccip Erdogan wanted Imran to be the third wheel of the triumvirate that ruled the Islamic world, in a direct challenge to Saudi Arabia. Saudi ire was all too evident when the Saudi prince recalled a private jet loaned to Imran Khan to fly home from the United States, forcing him to take a commercial flight.

Either way, the 27 ‘defectors’ and the 17 members who were part of the PTI coalition are the fulcrum of change. Imran, who has refused to step down even though he knows he cannot win the trust vote, saying he was “going to bat till the last ball,” is going back to using the ploy of whipping up public support by holding a rally in the heart of the capital, on March 27, even as the joint opposition says it will hold one too, a day or two later, opening the door to possible street confrontations that will fuel unrest.

This time, however, the PTI chief does not have the backing of Gen. Bajwa. Whether the now all-but-toothless Gen. Faiz Hameed and Imran’s dwindling supporters will fall back on street power to turn the tide as it did before is moot.

The whispered backroom deal is expected to see the powerful Chaudhrys — Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain and Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi — who run Punjab, give Imran Khan the heave-ho, opening the doors, insiders say, to the return not just of the Sharifs but the Bhutto-Zardaris, with Shahbaz Sharif as Prime Minister and PPP chief, Asif Ali Zardari as the possible President.

Squashing speculation that the Chaudhrys would block the Sharifs, an insider said, “when Nawaz Sharif’s mother passed away, the first person who came to pay his condolences at Nawaz’ Raiwind home was Chaudhry Shujaat. They may be political rivals, but they are friends who have known each other for years.”

As for India, whose National Security Adviser reportedly reached out to Gen. Faiz, holding not one but three back-channel meetings, it may be time to revisit its Pakistan policy and which basket in Pakistan it puts its eggs in on the issue of peace-making with the recalcitrant neighbour.

(The writer is a former Foreign Affairs Editor of Gulf News and has reported extensively on South Asia and the Middle East)