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In Bengal, Amit Shah’s ‘NRC' scream defeated BJP

Last Updated 05 December 2019, 19:59 IST

Barely six months after its record success in West Bengal in the Lok Sabha elections where it won 18 seats, the BJP has been trounced by the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in the recent Assembly by-elections. The by-elections were held in Kharagpur Sadar, Kaliaganj and Karimpur Assembly constituencies. TMC bagged all three seats. Trinamool had not so far won Kaliaganj and Kharagpur Sadar. In 2016, the BJP had won Kharagpur Sadar and Congress the Kaliaganj

Several factors contributed to the BJP’s defeat in the by-polls, but it was chiefly the BJP leadership’s constant harping on conducting the NRC exercise in Bengal. Home Minister Amit Shah’s announcement that NRC will be conducted across the country has put the Bengal BJP in a spot. They can neither oppose the decision nor allay the concerns of voters in the

The state BJP explained away the by-poll results as due to the TMC’s “misleading campaign” over NRC. The party’s Kaliaganj candidate Kamal Chandra Sarkar admitted that it was confusion over NRC that had led to the party’s

Karimpur and Kaliaganj have substantial numbers of minority and refugee Hindu voters. The Bengal BJP leadership’s offhand remarks and the exclusion of more than 10 lakh Hindu Bengalis from the NRC list in neighbouring Assam have spread panic among both Muslims and refugee Hindus in these seats. No wonder they chose to vote for TMC. The repeated assurance of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee that she would not allow the NRC exercise to be conducted in the state won her party the voters’ trust. The TMC’s Karimpur candidate Bimalendu Sinha Roy defeated the BJP’s Jayprakash Majumdar by a margin of 24,129 votes; Kaliaganj TMC candidate Tapan Deb Singha defeated his BJP rival Kamal Chandra Sarkar by 2,414 votes. The fact that the BJP had a massive lead of 56,762 votes from Kaliaganj in the Lok Sabha elections has resulted in further embarrassment for the saffron party.

The state BJP leadership also failed to convince Hindu voters in these seats about the “benefits” of the Citizenship Amendment Bill. The ignorance among a large number of BJP workers about the Bill hampered their campaign to counter the TMC’s allegation that the ruling party at the Centre wanted to drive Bengalis out of the country under the pretext of NRC.

The saffron party even failed to retain the Kharagpur Sadar constituency, which was won by state BJP president Dilip Ghosh in the 2016 Assembly elections. It fell vacant when Ghosh got elected to the Lok Sabha. The BJP failed to win in this prestige fight against TMC largely because of the bitter factional feud in the area that weakened its organisation. The TMC, which had never before won the seat, deployed state Transport Minister Suvendu Adhikari, an able organiser, to wrest it. Even though the BJP had a massive lead of 45,132 votes in Kharagpur Sadar in the Lok Sabha election, its candidate Premchandra Jha was defeated by TMC’s Pradip Sarkar by 20,788 votes.

The BJP’s attempt to capitalise on the anti-incumbency factor against TMC was also foiled by the chief minister’s public outreach initiative called ‘Speak to Didi.’ A brainchild of the poll strategist Prashant Kishor, the initiative addressed people’s grievances against the state government and a section of TMC leaders to a great extent. It blunted the BJP’s allegations against TMC such as corruption, highhandedness and use of muscle power.

The TMC supremo delivered a masterstroke by openly asking local party leaders to return ‘cut money’ (bribe to access benefits of government schemes). Despite the initial embarrassment for TMC, the move ultimately created an impression among voters that when it comes to curbing corruption, Mamata will not spare even her own party men.

The BJP’s lack of proper leadership in the state played a key role in its defeat. The by-polls were a test for the state BJP leadership as this was the first major election they had to handle without the presence of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. The Bengal BJP leaders proved to be no match for the TMC supremo in terms of political stature, leadership skill and electoral strategy.

Despite the earlier setbacks in Assembly elections in other states, it seems that the Bengal BJP leadership fails to understand that Assembly elections are contested on state-specific issues and cannot always be won by heaping praise on Modi. The state BJP leadership is yet to produce a credible face of the party who can match the TMC supremo.

Another reason for the BJP’s performance seems to be that unlike in the Lok Sabha elections, large portions of the Left Front’s votes, and to some extent Congress’ votes, did not go to the saffron party. Instead, they went to TMC. A comparison between the performance of the Left-Congress alliance in the by-elections and in the 2016 Assembly elections in the three constituencies makes it evident.

Compared to the 2016 Assembly elections, Congress’ vote share in Kharagpur Sadar fell from 35.80% to 14.8% in the by-elections. As for Kaliaganj, Congress’ vote share fell from 53.46% in 2016 to 8.64% in the by-elections. Congress candidates in these two constituencies were supported by the Left Front. In Karimpur, where CPI(M) contested with Congress’ support in the last Assembly elections, the CPI(M)’s vote share came down from 37.56% to 9.09%.

The TMC’s vote share in Kharagpur Sadar increased from 22.13% in the 2016 Assembly elections to 47.66% in the by-elections. In Kaliaganj, it shot up from 31.39% in 2016 to 44.65% now. The TMC also recorded an increase in vote share in Karimpur in the by-elections. When TMC won the seat in the last Assembly elections, it had a vote share of 45.57%. It went up to 50.43% in the by-elections.

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(Published 05 December 2019, 19:59 IST)

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