Lessons for each party from the Bihar bypoll outcome

The victory scored by the ruling Janata Dal (United) in the recent bypolls in the two Assembly constituencies in Bihar has not only helped Chief Minister Nitish Kumar salvage his position after a poor showing in the 2020 Assembly elections, but also provided lessons for the Opposition in the state.

Normally, bye-elections are of little significance in any state. But if a bypoll is held in two constituencies in a state where the ruling combine and the Opposition are numerically equally strong, with their strength varying with a slender margin, then one has to take notice of the result and the lessons for every player in the fray.

The first lesson was for the RJD, which is still the largest party in the 243-member Assembly with 75 MLAs and missed forming the government in November 2020 by a whisker. During the bypoll campaign, it was widely propagated that once the RJD wins these two constituencies - Tarapur and Kusheshwar Sthan – Leader of the Opposition Tejashwi Yadav will don the mantle of chief ministership by roping in smaller allies of NDA. In November 2020, Tejashwi missed the bus as the RJD-led Mahagatbandhan could win 110 seats in the 243-member House. While Nitish, who could win merely 43 seats, the worst performance since 2005, managed to retain his chair with the support of BJP (73 MLAs), Jitan Ram Manjhi’s HAM (four MLAs) and Mukesh Sahni’s VIP (four MLAs).

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It was the two smaller outfits, currently the allies of NDA, which were supposed to be susceptible and could cross over the fence for greener pastures. That is, if RJD were to win the bypolls. It was against this backdrop that the RJD roped in its tallest leader Lalu Prasad, who could not campaign for the party during the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the 2020 Bihar Assembly election as he was incarcerated in jail after being convicted in the fodder scam. So, a fortnight back, despite his frail health, Lalu flew down to Patna from New Delhi, where he had been staying with his parliamentarian daughter Misa Bharti, a Rajya Sabha member, after being discharged from AIIMS and securing bail from the court.

It was believed that when Tejashwi, who single-handedly helped the Mahagatbandhan reach the figure of 110 during the 2020 Assembly elections by raising the issue of unemployment, job avenues and price rise, the combined strength of Lalu-Tejashwi would do wonders for the RJD during the bypoll. The RJD did give a spirited fight. But a divided Mahagatbandhan, where Congress fielded its candidate on the two seats after being shown the door by the RJD, spoilt the broth.

Bawdy language

The unsavoury remarks made by Lalu against the Congress’ Bihar in-charge and former Union Minister Bhakt Charan Das did not go down well with the voters in general and Congress in particular. Senior Congress leader and former Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar was so angry with Lalu for calling Bhakt Charan Das, a Dalit leader, as ‘Bhakchonhar’ (stupid person) that she remarked, “It appears that Lalu has not (medically) recovered fully and needs some more treatment.”

Meira was campaigning for the Congress nominee in Kusheshwar Sthan, which is a reserved constituency and hoped the voters would show RJD its place for humiliating a Dalit leader. She was right. The JD(U)’s Aman Bhushan Hazari trounced the RJD nominee by over 12,000 votes.

In Tarapur too, RJD’s fortunes dwindled after the JD(U) made Lalu’s statement that he had come for ‘visarjan’ (death knell) of Nitish. Though Lalu later clarified that he actually meant “death knell of Nitish regime”, but by that time Nitish was smart enough to make it a poll issue and reminded the voters of “dark age of RJD rule from 1990 to 2005 where people would not venture out of their home after sunset. Such was the lawlessness during the Pati-Patni (Lalu-Rabri) raj.”

The voters of Tarapur ensured the JD(U) victory, although the RJD put up a spirited fight and lost by around 3,000 votes. Notably, the Congress candidate in Tarapur secured over 3,000 votes and thus a divided Opposition had to bite the dust.

The bypoll results have thrown a lesson for Congress too. Having contested alone, without the crutches of RJD, it came fourth in both the seats. In fact, the newly-formed outfit LJP-Ramvilas Paswan faction polled more votes than the grand old party and came third in both the constituencies.

This showed Ramvilas Paswan’s son Chirag Paswan is still considered the real inheritor of his father’s legacy and the Paswans, who constitute around 6% of the electorate, are still loyal to Chirag, and not to Pashupati Kumar Paras (Ramvilas Paswan’s bother who engineered split in the LJP and became a Union Minister). “But here is a lesson for him too. He will have to align with either side – the NDA or the Mahagatbandhan, if he has to play a long innings,” opined senior journalist Arun Kumar.

The fourth lesson is for the new entrant in the Congress – Kanhaiya Kumar and migratory birds like Shatrughan Sinha and Kirti Azad (both dumped the BJP and joined the Congress on the eve of 2019 LS polls). “No doubt, Kanhaiya is an unmatched orator and a prize catch for Congress where there is a dearth of leaders who could attract crowd through oratory skills. But the party which he is representing has no cadre or base, unlike his former Left organisation – the CPI. The Congress needs to start from scratch, with a well-oiled organisation, much like the BJP. Or else, celebrities like Shatrughan or cricketer-turned-politician Kirti Azad could be of no use. One Kanhaiya could not infuse a new lease of life into a moribund Congress gasping for breath,” opined political commentator Ajay Kumar.

(The writer is an independent journalist)