Rajasthan test awaits the Gandhis

Is Sonia Gandhi hesitating to sack Gehlot because the numbers favour him?

Will the Congress be able to effect a change of guard in Rajasthan? The biggest test for the Gandhis is not who becomes the next Congress president, but whether they will be able to bring about a leadership change in Rajasthan. Rasheed Kidwai, the author of 24 Akbar Road, has pointed out, "It is no longer Gehlot versus Pilot. But now it has become Gehlot vs the Gandhis."

Despite no official announcement, it is a well-known fact within the Congress that Priyanka Gandhi Vadra had promised Sachin Pilot the chief minister's chair when she stopped him from leaving the party in 2020. Rahul Gandhi, too, is said to have seconded this because the Gandhi siblings were aware that post the 2018 Rajasthan polls, held in tandem with Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, the latter two states saw the then PCC chiefs promoted as the CMs. Except in Rajasthan, the then PCC Chief (Pilot) had to play second fiddle to Ashok Gehlot. Since the Udaipur meet in May this year, the Gandhis have been nudging Gehlot to step down in favour of Pilot.

Also Read — Cong in no hurry to decide on Rajasthan leadership row

The move to shift Gehlot upwards as the Congress president banked on a domino effect expected to lead to Pilot getting installed in the CM's chair in Jaipur. But we all saw how Gehlot effectively checkmated that plan. However, he did not just snub Pilot. He also took on the Gandhis by going against the wishes of the party's high command. Now the Gandhis need to fix this optic in their favour.

Will the Gandhis be able to install Pilot as the Rajasthan CM? Anyone else will seem like a compromise and pander to Gehlot's authority. On September 29, after the Gehlot-Sonia meeting, the party's organisational general secretary KC Venugopal told the media that a team of observers would soon be sent to Rajasthan to talk to the MLAs. Another CLP will be called, during which a one-line resolution will be passed, allowing Sonia Gandhi to choose the next CM. But the observers are yet to catch that flight to Jaipur.

Why is Sonia Gandhi hesitating? Is it because the numbers favour Gehlot - he claims the support of around 102 MLAs (92 from the Congress and the rest independent)? In total, the Congress has 107 MLAs in Rajasthan. According to Gehlot, the Sachin camp has about 18 MLAs. For their part, the Pilot camp says these numbers are incorrect as Ajay Maken and Mallikarjun Kharge, sent to Jaipur as observers for that ill-fated CLP meet on September 25, never had a chance to ascertain for themselves. They wanted to meet each MLA independently and ascertain their vote, but the Gehlot camp insisted on meeting in a group, resignations in hand. Even today, Pilot feels that this exercise has been much delayed. It should have taken place in 2018 when the freshly elected MLAs should have been asked to choose between him and Gehlot.

That apart, as the Punjab experiment has proven, it is possible to sway the MLAs against a popular chief minister if they are handled one by one; and if the Congress high command sends a strong signal in favour of a particular candidate. Otherwise, there was no way Captain Amarinder Singh could be removed and replaced not by the more popular Sunil Jakhar but by Charanjit Singh Channi, who was Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra's choice for the job. Interestingly, Congress watchers also recall the 1998 Rajasthan elections when the high command decided in favour of Gehlot as CM over the claims of a much more popular Jat leader Parasram Maderna.

The key question is, will Ashok Gehlot be able to hold onto his numbers? What are his options? There are only 13 months before the state polls at the end of 2023. This does not give him enough time to break away from the Congress and float his own party. He could do a `shakti-pradarshan' (show of strength) and destabilise the current government, but it would be a short-term victory. Besides, a Congress ticket still counts for something in Rajasthan, a state that has played musical chairs between the BJP and the Congress every five years since 1993, electing each turn by turn.

What Gehlot needs to do is rebuild trust with the Gandhis. He has a five decades old equation with the family that has not been questioned until now. Gehlot was one of the few members of the old guard who had managed to gain Rahul Gandhi's trust. The late Rajeev Satav had once told me about the equation between the two, pointing out that if Rahul Gandhi decided on having a cup of coffee, Gehlot would never contradict that but instead would voice the merits of tea in such a convincing manner that by the end Rahul would reach out for a cup of tea. In short, Gehlot was the mentor and Rahul's link with the old guard in a way that the late Ahmed Patel never managed to become. By his little revolt, Gehlot has broken that link.

Then why did he feel the need to flex his muscles? Those who know Gehlot claim he was a bit wary of resigning before being elected party chief. The Gandhis had publicly stated that they would remain 'neutral' in the presidential polls. What if events got out of hand and he lost the election? He would have already stepped down as CM and thereby would have lost out on that as well. Everyone remembers the Neelam Sanjiva Reddy versus V V Giri election for the President of India (1969), where an official candidate was defeated. Besides, why step down in advance for a job he didn't want in the first place?

The Pilot camp insisted on the change of guard for this very reason - they didn't trust Gehlot to step down after he became the party chief. There is every possibility that Gehlot would've then exerted his authority and prevented Pilot from becoming CM.

It was a lack of trust all around that led to the Rajasthan desert storm, dust from which is yet to settle. The Gandhis have wisely waited before provoking Gehlot further, and they could well opt for a compromise formula, giving Sachin the chief ministerial chair and the Gehlot camp the PCC presidentship; or vice versa, or even opt for a compromise face as the chief minister – someone like CP Joshi, for instance, would be acceptable to both the camps. But as I mentioned earlier, anyone other than Sachin Pilot in the CM's chair would mean that the Gandhis have kowtowed before Gehlot.

Yet the Gandhis seem in no hurry to take on Gehlot and hold the CLP meeting. The buzz is that this could take place post the presidential elections.

Until now, Sonia Gandhi's style has been non-confrontational. She would have gone in for the balancing act with a compromise candidate had Gehlot not defied her so publicly. All who had met Sonia Gandhi after the CLP meeting stated that she was very hurt by Gehlot's behaviour. His apology may have assuaged her a bit, but it doesn't seem enough. The real mea culpa would be if Gehlot allows Sachin to be installed in the CM's chair. Therein also lies his salvation with the Gandhis. But will his antipathy to Sachin Pilot allow that? The dust is still to settle from the desert storm before we get the answer to that question.

(Priya Sahgal is Senior Executive Editor, News X and the author of The Contenders: Who Will Lead India Tomorrow)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.