Prime Minister Narendra Modi is predictable in his unpredictability. And so is the din, drama and drop-dead timing of his decisions to draw maximum mileage for himself.
Take the change of guard in Gujarat. On September 11, Prime Minister Modi e-inaugurated the Sardardham Bhavan built by the politically powerful and numerically abundant Patidar community. Hours later, Vijay Rupani puts in his papers, becoming the third Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) chief minister to do so in as many months countrywide.
A day later, he is replaced by an obscure Bhupendra Patel, a first-time legislator. It is a poll-time message for 15 per cent of the Patidar voting population with tilting influence in 69 of the 182 Gujarat Vidhan Sabha seats.
The timing makes it evident that it will be a Patidar (Patel). All key BJP Patidar leaders are called in attendance, flying in from Delhi, even the Andamans. The media goes berserk, bandying all manner of Patidar names, from Deputy CM Nitin Patel to Daman administrator Praful Patel and union ministers Mansukh Mandaviya and Parshottam Rupala to Gordhan Zadafia and former state party chief RC Faldu.
On Sunday, September 12, the state party goes through all the motions of democratic procedures that mark a chief minister's selection by elected legislators, albeit mechanically. The eventual surprise choice leaves the frontrunners fuming within and the party rank and file fumbling without, quite unable to understand the process. Nevertheless, everyone forces a smile, fully aware that the decision comes from Modi. He is the party; he is the government; the rest all is frills.
Nothing grows under a banyan tree. Gujarat has two of them, Modi and Amit Shah. Anandiben Patel, who succeeded Modi as chief minister in 2014, was a strong leader who took independent decisions but paid the price.
See the irony. A strong Patidar woman chief minister was ousted through a Patidar agitation for enhanced rights and placements and replaced by a non-Patidar lightweight, Vijay Rupani, in August 2016. Now, five years later, that same person is being replaced to bring in another lightweight Patidar, ostensibly to placate the Patel vote bank.
Anandiben Patel was the last of the Mohicans. No chief minister in Gujarat can function independently. A hawk's eye guards the prime minister's home state since any setback here would blight his image everywhere. There is Modi's imprint all over governance in Gujarat. Shah remains the quintessential eye-in-the-sky, guarding his boss' flock as well as his own.
On the ground, there is K Kailashnathan, an IAS officer of the 1979 batch who did duty in the Chief Minister's Office (CMO) during Modi's tenure and continues thereon even after his retirement and Modi's move to Delhi, outlasting two chief ministers and going onto the third.
Modi's 12 years plus term as chief minister in Gujarat was marked by two loyal deputies in the cabinet who owed allegiance to him. Anandiben Patel looked after the brain and money (revenue, education, road and buildings) and Amit Shah, who took care of the brawn and muscle (police, jails and the like) - both sworn political opponents. Anandiben Patel took over from Modi in Gujarat, and Shah went to Delhi as national party chief. But back home, their wires continued to cross.
In August 2015, the Hardik Patel-led Patidar rally in Ahmedabad had passed off peacefully. But under prompting from someone other than the then chief minister, police went berserk late at night, attacking Patel majority residential societies and violence flared up, consuming the Anandiben Patel government. Rupani, a greenhorn Shah supporter, replaced her. Bhupendra Patel, who now takes charge, was her choice replacement for the Vidhan Sabha seat vacated by her and is her protégé. The clock has now come full circle.
Rupani has been scalped for compulsions of electoral politics. He had no say beyond providing the infrastructure and organisation for the Namaste Trump rally in Ahmedabad on February 23, 2020, which led to the proliferation of coronavirus in the state. It was the prime minister's show for the then US President Donald Trump.
Vijay Nehra, the then Ahmedabad municipal commissioner who sought to identify Covid-19 cases to contain the contagion, was transferred out - not because Rupani wanted it - but because Delhi was perturbed at the rising cases which brought it infamy. Brushing under the carpet does not help, but the chief minister was held to account for it then and cashiered now.
Rupani would have gone earlier in June when Delhi Chief Minister, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) chief, Arvind Kejriwal, visited the state to induct famous journalist Isudan Gadhvi into the party. However, the move to replace Rupani was stalled because of fears that it would have sent a wrong message. Kamalam, the state BJP headquarter was a hive of frenetic activity with the national party leadership on call, all key Gujarat leaders being bunched together and the intelligence wing on alert in the districts to check out for any likely desertions.
In April, the AAP's minuscule achievement - bagging 27-seats in the Surat Municipal Corporation elections to the BJP's 93 - in a 120 member house (the Congress drew a blank) has become a thorn in the BJP's side. More so because it is the home ground of state BJP chief CR Patil, Modi's go-to man, be it Gujarat, Bihar or Benaras.
The excellent work done in the AAP's Surat wards during the second corona wave and its widespread recognition has added discomfort. A top-notch Surat diamond merchant, a Patidar known for his philanthropy, joining AAP rang alarm bells in the saffron edifice, hastening the process of Rupani's departure.
The cause for consternation lies in the umbilical cord that binds a swathe of Saurashtra to Surat as the labour and fuel that energises this financial capital of Gujarat comes from the former region, including the Patidars. Saurashtra is the Achilles heel of the BJP, and echoes from Surat resound rapidly there, which underscores the additional need to appease the Patels.
Past lapses and lacunae, pasted on the chief minister who is now the past, may give the ruling BJP a new, clean slate for the ensuing 2022 Vidhan Sabha elections, or so it believes. Still, the new chief minister Bhupendra Patel will have to deal with the same problems - remote control and fighting an electoral bout with one hand tied behind his back and his eyes looking Delhi-wards. It does not matter whose camp follower you are. Ultimately, you are the fall guy in an election fought under the name of Narendra Modi. Heads, I win, tails, you lose.
Old-time television sets had a feature called picture-in-picture. Thus there is also a bigger picture beyond Gujarat in the sequence of national events. The BJP's brinkmanship in Bihar elections 2020 aimed at outsmarting its coalition partner, Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal (United), saw it almost teetering on edge before retaining power. West Bengal polls where the BJP went hammer and tongs saw the might of Modi-Shah bruised by a leg bandaged Mamta Banerjee's Trinamool Congress.
The hat-trick of setbacks was complete when Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath resisted all attempts to impose Modi confidante, AK Sharma, an IAS officer of the Gujarat cadre, as deputy chief minister of UP. Sharma hails from UP and is now doing duty as BJP vice president in the state. Adityanath also seems to have made it known to the party top brass that the ensuing UP elections will be fought with him as the mascot and not Delhi leading the charge.
Those who have covered Modi for a long time know that he has a way of getting even. The chief ministerial heads rolling in the BJP-ruled states - some which have and some more will - are an assertion of his authority.
(The writer is a veteran Ahmedabad-based journalist)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.
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