Russia’s BRICS presidency a boost to Putin, anti-West alliances

Russia’s BRICS presidency in 2024 is set to watermark the fissures that exist in the current world order, making the group geopolitically more significant, but economically still aspirational in changing the age-old and unjust global institutional structures.

Though it wouldn’t let lingering differences among the members of the group completely subside in the wake of China’s global ambitions remaining unbounded, it would certainly enhance Russia’s confidence and add to the anti-West sentiments getting more pronounced in many parts of the world.

The recent expansion of the grouping made it heftier and weightier in highlighting its growing relevance for making the voice of the Global South heard louder, besides bringing in a new verve in terms of its economic potential across the region.

Among the new entrants, the presence of the oil majors Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) show how easily they could move away from the United States orbit when the friction between Russia and the West over the Ukraine conflict remains turbocharged. Russia’s President Vladimir Putin made a rare visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in December — Putin has visited Iran and China since the Russia- Ukraine conflict began in February 2022. 

The two West Asian powers are now part of a grouping which has Russia and Iran — both countries which are at the receiving end of the US’ wrath, European animosity, and in the middle of a concerted effort by the West for diplomatic isolation.

Much to Russia’s happiness as much as to its relief, most BRICS members will speak against a world order dictated by the West, as it is detrimental to their interests, and antithetical to the existing global realities.

This will further emphasise how the Ukraine conflict has split the world between the West and the rest, and the ongoing Israel-Hamas war has put cold water over the US plans to bring peace between Israel and the Gulf region.

Russia’s confidence that the European powers are fatigued in Ukraine will further embolden Moscow and sharpen its anti-Western positions.

The expanded BRICS is representative in many ways, and is adjusted against power tussles within the group. Collectively, the grouping is not a stronger voice in changing the global governance structures and running of multilateral institutions to reflect today's economic realities, multi-polarity of global political order, shifting nature of political alliances, and role of sentiments in international relations.

What could further highlight the salience of the grouping is that some 30 more countries have expressed their interest in joining the bloc as Russia prepares to host the summit in Kazan in October. The expanded BRICS member states now comprise 46 per cent of the global population, and nearly a third of the world’s economy.

Though the picture looks rosy at the level of optics and soundbites, the group will not find it not easy to conform to its foundational principle of decision-making by consensus. Unlike a G-7 or the European Union, this grouping has vastly different economies, member country’s foreign policy objectives don't fall in a straight line, and there will be lurking suspicion when it comes to Beijing’s agenda within the group or on the necessity of an unfiled currency to outsmart the US Dollar.

Never in global history has the two most populous countries and geographical neighbours — China and India — grew so rapidly spreading wings of their geopolitical significance in a mutually competent milieu. Unlike China or Russia, India has close friends and partners in the West and some of the West’s pet peeve countries such as Iran among its trusted partners.

BRICS, however, remains on the cusp of a demonstrable change that could underline the need to revisit how the outdated, and not truly representative, global financial institutions work.

None knows this better than the five key BRICS members: Though they account for a quarter of global GDP in nominal terms, their collective voting power in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is 15 per cent. If the BRICS bank (New Development Bank (NDB)) could prove more emphatically that it is showing the way in this regard, it would go a long way in making the rest of the world see hope in BRICS taking the definite lead in changing this unjust economic order.

In the last seven years, the NDB approved financing for 96 projects worth $32 billion — which is only one-third of the total disbursal from the World Bank Groups in 2021 to 190 partner countries. BRICS needs to get its economic act together to match its growing political salience and become an alternative platform where the aspiration of the developing world is better realised. That is the challenge before Russia as it has assumed the presidency in 2024.

(Jayanth Jacob, a foreign policy commentator, has covered the ministry of external affairs for more than two decades. X: @jayanthjacob.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.