A worldwide sigh of relief

The defeat of Brazil’s far-right President Jair Bolsonaro in the just-concluded presidential elections has evoked a sigh of relief worldwide. The racist, sexist and homophobic former army captain’s presidency has had a catastrophic impact not just on Brazil but also on the world. His unscientific approach to the Covid-19 pandemic – among other things he was opposed to vaccines -- put Brazil’s coronavirus death toll at the second highest in the world. Fake news and conspiracy theories dominated Brazil under his rule. Thanks to his mismanagement of the economy, poverty is rising in Brazil, with 15.5% of its people now facing food insecurity. Of immense concern to the world were his environmental policies. He dismantled environmental protection agencies, fired experts, and weakened laws restricting logging and mining in the Amazon region. It resulted in the ransacking of the Amazon rainforests, which are key to the global fight against climate change. His defeat is therefore being celebrated worldwide as a triumph for democracy, science, rationality, and the environment. Worryingly, Bolsonaro, widely derided as the ‘Trump of the Tropics’ is yet to concede defeat. Will he, like Trump, attempt to stage a coup? Bolsonaro should accept the people’s mandate.

The return of Lula da Silva to power is welcome. Going by his record as Brazil’s President between January 2003 and December 2010 – he cut deforestation in the Amazon by 70% -- and his recent campaign promises, it does seem that Lula will seek to undo the damage done by Bolsonaro. This will not be easy for several reasons. One is that the damage is extensive; the economy Bolsonaro is leaving behind will deny Lula the resources needed to fight poverty and environmental damage. Besides, Lula’s is only a very narrow win over Bolsonaro, indicating Brazil’s deep political polarisation. Lula will likely face protests, even violent protests, every step of the way. Importantly, Bolsonaro’s party controls both houses of parliament and far-right elements are entrenched in institutions like the media and the judiciary. Lula is likely to find that winning the presidency was the easy part; the hard part will be keeping it and implementing his policies. Lula’s victory was possible because of the broad coalition he built ahead of the election. He will need to hold on to his allies to stay in power.

Left-wing progressives have made major gains in recent months in various South American countries from Chile to Colombia. Lula’s victory is in sync with that trend. Other countries struggling under right-wing authoritarians can take heart from the Brazilian election result; it is possible to oust polarising figures through the ballot box.