All stimulus, no lockdown yet, Abe?

After weeks of inaction, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has finally announced measures to stem the spread of coronavirus and help the Japanese economy weather the crisis. He has declared a state of emergency covering Tokyo and six other prefectures. This is aimed at helping local governments press people to stay at home with a view to encouraging social distancing. Additionally, the government has announced a $990-billion stimulus package, a whopping 20% of Japan’s GDP. Japan has been relatively fortunate so far; just 3,654 people have tested positive for coronavirus in the country. However, the situation is changing for the worse and rapidly. Over the past week, the number of confirmed cases has more than doubled. Health professionals have been pointing out that underlying Japan’s relatively small number of COVID-19 cases is its extremely restricted testing strategy. Just 40,000 of its 127 million-strong population have been tested so far. Consequently, only the tip of the coronavirus iceberg has been visible. This lulled the Abe government into a false belief that the situation was under control. Not only did the Abe government err in avoiding mass testing but also, it has resisted imposing lockdowns. The sudden and sharp rise in the number of COVID-19 cases indicates that the Abe government was wrong. Many are criticising Abe’s declaration of a state of emergency as inadequate as it does not provide for lockdowns or punishment for non-compliance. Achieving social distancing will hinge on the Japanese tradition of respect for authority. Will this alone be enough to persuade people to stay indoors?

Abe’s stimulus package has signalled that Japan has the economic resources and the will to soften the blow of the coronavirus on its economy. However, his failure to take early and robust action to prevent the virus’ spread could extract a heavy price in terms of human lives. Across the world, coronavirus has been brutal in its impact on the elderly. Over 28% of Japan’s population falls in this category. It can expect a large number of coronavirus infections and fatalities in the coming weeks.

Abe would have been hoping that a grand Olympics-2020 would be the crowning glory of his prime ministerial term. That hope has been put on hold with the Games being deferred to next year. His mishandling of quarantine facilities on board the cruise liner Diamond Princess, when it was docked at Yokohoma for a month, drew criticism worldwide. Should he fail to provide Japan with the resolute leadership it needs to ride out the pandemic, his political legacy could be seriously tarnished.