An uncertain phase for Pakistan

Pakistan created history at midnight on April 9-10, when 174 members of its 342-strong National Assembly (NA) voted in favour of a no-confidence motion against the Imran Khan government. Khan has become the first Pakistani PM to be removed from office in a no-confidence vote. The country also repeated history. No Pakistani PM has completed a full five-year term, and that ‘tradition’ continues. Khan’s unseemly refusal to face the no-trust vote cannot be easily forgotten. The Supreme Court had ruled that the no-trust vote must be completed on April 9. It had also set a clear time for the reconvening of parliament for it. Despite these clear injunctions by the apex court, it was only after army chief Gen Qamar Bajwa visited Khan hours after the adjournment of the parliament session on Saturday that Khan finally relented and faced the vote.

Although Khan has been ousted from power, it is not the end of the political road for him or his party. He has said he will continue his struggle against those he claims conspired to remove him. It is likely that he will take his battle to the streets. Although Khan did not have the numbers to survive the no-trust vote, he continues to control a formidable number of seats in the NA. Opposition parties won the vote of no-confidence by a whisker; they were able to muster just 174 votes, just two more than the simple majority mark of 172. But for their shared opposition to Khan, they have little in common. How long before this opposition alliance falls apart? Leader of the Opposition and PML-N chief Shehbaz Sharif is expected to become the next Prime Minister. The PML-N and the PPP have long been bitter rivals, run by warring dynasties, that have battled each other inside parliament and on the streets. With elections 18 months away, they have little reason to cooperate. Why would the PPP, for instance, want to depict Shehbaz in a positive light before voters? Pakistan is entering yet another phase of political uncertainty.

India-Pakistan relations could take a hit in the coming months. Although bilateral relations have been acrimonious in recent years, back-channel talks were in progress. That process is likely to break down now. In recent weeks, when Khan spoke positively of India, the PML-N’s Maryam Sharif mocked him. In the circumstances, it will be difficult for any new government to engage positively with India. But since it is the military that calls the shots on Pakistan’s defence and foreign policies, New Delhi will do well to ensure that it has a grasp on the Pakistani military’s thinking.