BJP continues its NE dominance

In the first of the electoral contests that form part of the long race to the 2024 finals, the BJP has shown its dominance in the North-East by returning to power in Tripura and Nagaland and marking its presence in Meghalaya, too. The North-Eastern states have traditionally supported the ruling party at the Centre in elections. It is not ideologies but the potential for realising regional and local interests that influences their electoral preferences. So, it is no surprise that the BJP has done well in the three states where it was the dominant ruling party or was part of the ruling alliance. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image, the availability of resources, realism and diplomacy on issues, a well-organised campaign directed by Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma and the lack of strength of other parties, except in Meghalaya, were the factors that propelled the BJP again to the pole position.

The BJP, which came to power in a sweeping electoral wave in Tripura in 2018, is assured of continuity in power there, but there is a warning also. The party’s alliance has lost a number of seats, and it has barely secured a simple majority. The state government did not have a great record and the party had to change its Chief Minister last year to contain the anti-incumbency sentiment. The Congress-CPM poll alliance did not go far enough to challenge the BJP, but it was able to nearly hold on to the seats the Left had. The star of the election is the Tipra Motha, a regional party floated by former Congress leader Pradyot Deb Barman, which has sought to represent tribal interests and has done well in the tribal areas. In Nagaland, the BJP and its major partner, the Nationalist Democratic People’s Party (NDPP), won decisively. The Opposition NPF, which was part of the government, has lost badly and the Congress has been decimated.

Meghalaya has thrown up a hung Assembly, with Chief Minister Conrad Sangma’s NPP falling short of majority. But it is well-placed to form a government with the BJP, with which it had parted ways before the elections. The BJP has retained its strength, and the Trinamool Congress has made its presence felt. The TMC had taken away most of the Congress leadership but the results do not reflect such a wholesale shift of strength. Instead, the Congress, which was left with no MLAs, though it was the largest party with 21 MLAs after the last election, has shown that it is alive at the ground level.