JOIN USCheerful prospects on the monsoon front
The India Meteorological Department's (IMD) update on the monsoon has maintained its earlier outlook of a normal monsoon, but with certain conditions. It states that the monsoon will be normal, as predicted in April, at 96 per cent of the long-term average of 87 cm. Rainfall below 96 per cent is considered below normal, which IMD does not anticipate. However, it also suggests a strong possibility of the El Nino phenomenon developing this year.
El Nino refers to the warming of the waters in the central Pacific, which typically has an adverse impact on the monsoon in most parts of India between July and August. Other weather agencies have also predicted a fairly strong El Nino occurrence this year.
Nevertheless, IMD expects the El Nino effect to be moderated by another phenomenon known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The IOD is the oscillation of surface temperatures between the eastern and western parts of the Indian Ocean, resulting in increased rainfall. IMD anticipates that these phenomena will neutralise each other, leading to normal rainfall in India.
While some believe that El Nino is a stronger force than IOD, instances of both phenomena interacting are rare. Therefore, IMD's proposition will be tested in the coming months. However, the weather agency has provided a broad range of 92 per cent-104 per cent for rainfall in the country's agricultural zones.
Such a prediction may not offer much assistance as it lacks information on the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, which is more crucial than the total amount. Rainfall is only beneficial to farmers if it occurs when they need it. Untimely rainfall may do harm.
As the monsoon progresses, IMD gives region-wise and more accurate forecasts. The predictions are useful but sometimes they come too late.
While IMD expects an overall normal monsoon, it anticipates below-normal rainfall in June. Additionally, above-normal temperatures are predicted for June in most regions. Some areas in the northwest, west-central India, northern peninsular India, and the Himalayan foothills may experience below-normal rainfall.
On the other hand, the south peninsular, east-central, northeast, and northern parts of India are expected to receive 'normal' to 'above-normal' rainfall. Governments should prepare to face the situations that may arise from these monsoon scenarios, though they may change over the months. They will be able to act better when more detailed forecasts are made later. It is important to convey detailed information about monsoon conditions specific to each region to the farmers.