<p>The military coup in Myanmar is a devastating setback to the country’s efforts to build an inclusive democracy. In the early hours of Monday morning, the military seized control over power, declared a state of emergency for a year and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders. The National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the December 2020 elections appears to have irked the generals.</p>.<p>They have accused the NLD government of voter irregularities. Last week, a military spokesman refused to rule out the possibility of a military takeover. Days later, the military has ousted a democratically elected government. This is deeply distressing as Myanmar was slowly beginning to shake off the damaging impacts of decades of military rule. Now, the generals are back in the saddle.</p>.<p>It was only in 2011 that the military began loosening its grip over power and although it put in place constitutional provisions to ensure that the generals would continue to be the main arbiter of Myanmar’s politics, still, a process of democratisation was set in motion. Elections in 2015 brought Suu Kyi’s NLD to power and although the military continued to call the shots on many issues during its first term, it did seem that it had come around to cohabiting with democratic politicians, processes and institutions. Monday’s coup indicates that the generals were simply biding their time before grabbing power.</p>.<p>In the past, Myanmar’s generals have used extreme violence to quash protests. This is likely in the coming days as people come out on the streets to win back their political and democratic rights. Repression will only draw international condemnation and sanctions, which Myanmar’s fragile economy will not withstand. As in the past, the military can be expected to reach out to China to deal with global isolation over the coup. It will seek Beijing’s support, especially in the UN Security Council, where resolutions calling for a restoration of democracy can be expected in the coming weeks.</p>.<p>The military takeover in Myanmar has serious implications for India. A likely pro-China tilt in Myanmar’s foreign policy could erode the influence India had managed to build in recent decades. New Delhi will have to deal with the fallout of crackdowns on pro-democracy activists as well as these could prompt a flight of refugees into India. While its foreign policy concerns will direct New Delhi to avoid ruffling the feathers of Myanmar’s generals, there are humanitarian concerns and democratic commitments that India must not ignore. India must push for the restoration of democracy at the earliest.</p>
<p>The military coup in Myanmar is a devastating setback to the country’s efforts to build an inclusive democracy. In the early hours of Monday morning, the military seized control over power, declared a state of emergency for a year and detained Aung San Suu Kyi and other leaders. The National League for Democracy’s landslide victory in the December 2020 elections appears to have irked the generals.</p>.<p>They have accused the NLD government of voter irregularities. Last week, a military spokesman refused to rule out the possibility of a military takeover. Days later, the military has ousted a democratically elected government. This is deeply distressing as Myanmar was slowly beginning to shake off the damaging impacts of decades of military rule. Now, the generals are back in the saddle.</p>.<p>It was only in 2011 that the military began loosening its grip over power and although it put in place constitutional provisions to ensure that the generals would continue to be the main arbiter of Myanmar’s politics, still, a process of democratisation was set in motion. Elections in 2015 brought Suu Kyi’s NLD to power and although the military continued to call the shots on many issues during its first term, it did seem that it had come around to cohabiting with democratic politicians, processes and institutions. Monday’s coup indicates that the generals were simply biding their time before grabbing power.</p>.<p>In the past, Myanmar’s generals have used extreme violence to quash protests. This is likely in the coming days as people come out on the streets to win back their political and democratic rights. Repression will only draw international condemnation and sanctions, which Myanmar’s fragile economy will not withstand. As in the past, the military can be expected to reach out to China to deal with global isolation over the coup. It will seek Beijing’s support, especially in the UN Security Council, where resolutions calling for a restoration of democracy can be expected in the coming weeks.</p>.<p>The military takeover in Myanmar has serious implications for India. A likely pro-China tilt in Myanmar’s foreign policy could erode the influence India had managed to build in recent decades. New Delhi will have to deal with the fallout of crackdowns on pro-democracy activists as well as these could prompt a flight of refugees into India. While its foreign policy concerns will direct New Delhi to avoid ruffling the feathers of Myanmar’s generals, there are humanitarian concerns and democratic commitments that India must not ignore. India must push for the restoration of democracy at the earliest.</p>
