Impact of US pull-out from Afghanistan

The US’ proposed withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan by September 11 hands the Taliban a major victory as it is unconditional. On April 14, President Joe Biden announced that the drawdown of some 2,500 American troops currently in Afghanistan would begin on May 1 and be completed by September 11. He has assured the Afghan government of the US’ continued support. He has promised to continue American assistance to the 3,00,000-strong Afghan Army and police force. What form this assistance will take has not been clarified. Soon after his swearing-in as President, Biden said his administration would be reviewing US policy towards Afghanistan. It raised hopes that he would reform the policy for the better, remove among other things the flaws of the agreement reached between the Trump administration and the Taliban in February 2020. Under this agreement, the US had agreed to complete pulling out its troops in Afghanistan by May 1. With the new plan, the US has bought itself an additional five months to complete withdrawal. Biden says that this will enable the US to carry out the withdrawal “responsibly, deliberately, and safely” and not in haste as would have been the case with the May 1 deadline.

While the Biden plan allows for a more measured withdrawal of US troops, it is hardly an improvement. Under the 2020 agreement, American troop pull out was conditional. The Taliban was to ensure that international terrorists like al-Qaeda would not operate from Afghan soil and engage in talks with the Afghan government. However, the Biden plan makes no demands of the Taliban. The insurgent group has not only managed to get US troops to commit to exiting the country, albeit on an extended deadline but also they will do so unconditionally. The Taliban has not stopped its cooperation with al-Qaeda. Neither has it engaged in meaningful negotiations with the government. It has not reduced its violence and has stubbornly refused to declare a ceasefire. Despite the Taliban reneging on promises made a year ago, the US is withdrawing its troops. In effect, the Taliban has been rewarded for reneging on its commitments. The Taliban is already declaring victory against the US. Its ‘victory’ will provide a boost to jihadists and other insurgents worldwide.

The Taliban can be expected to step up military operations to grab power in Kabul soon after the US troops exit. Unlike the mid-1990s, however, Afghanistan today has a state, a constitution and trained security forces in place. Importantly, it has a civil society. But can these survive the onslaught of the Taliban? The possibility of a return to civil war is high.