Macron’s win is relief for France, EU

With his convincing victory over Marine Le Pen and re-election as French President, Emmanuel Macron has managed to keep the French far-right from occupying the Élysée Palace for another five years. Macron secured 58.54% of the votes cast in Sunday’s presidential election while Le Pen got 41.46% of the votes. Macron was expected to win a second presidential term. He has done so, albeit with a narrower margin than in the 2017 election. His victory has evoked relief in the EU, the US, NATO and among progressive and centrist forces in Europe. His return to the helm in France has brought the world a measure of reassurance and calm as it has come at a time when Europe is battling a pandemic, a grave economic crisis, a war with global implications. Le Pen stands for everything that the world does not need at the moment. She is a nationalist, even a xenophobe, who is strongly opposed to the EU. Her victory would have set off new fires. Boris Johnson’s victory in the British general elections in 2019 boosted Eurosceptics and the European far-right. A Le Pen victory in France would have dealt another crippling blow to the EU. NATO countries apprehended that a Le Pen win would benefit Russian President Vladimir Putin. Such apprehensions have eased somewhat with Macron continuing in the Élysée Palace.

However, France and the world should remain concerned. Although unemployment in France dropped to its lowest in 13 years during Macron’s first presidential term, voters supported him not because they were happy with his governance or policies – they are in fact angry with his pro-rich policies and his suppression of rights -- but because the alternative – Le Pen – was worse. Worryingly, Le Pen has performed better than in the 2017 presidential election, when Macron had won with 66.1% versus Le Pen’s 33.9%. Her vote-share is increasing. In a bid to appeal to the centrists, Le Pen toned down her anti-immigrant rhetoric in the recent election. This electoral strategy paid off.

France will vote in parliamentary elections in June. In recent general elections, French Presidents have managed to win a majority. Will that repeat this June or will Macron’s critics among the far-right and hard left deny him a parliamentary majority? If he fails to win a majority, he will find it hard to push through his pro-business policies, including unpopular plans to raise the age of retirement. Should he not win a majority in parliament, he will have to appoint a prime minister from the largest party. For now, it looks like Macron will have to be ready for compromises.