Monsoon bright spot in a time of gloom

The India Meteorological Department’s confirmation of an above-normal monsoon in its second stage forecast provides welcome relief because an adverse monsoon would be bad for the economy and the people in pandemic times. The IMD has said that the rainfall would be 101 per cent. of the Long Period Average (LPA) this year as against 109 per cent. in 2020 and 110 per cent. in 2019. In its first stage forecast in April, the IMD had said that the 2021 monsoon is expected to be normal at 98 per cent. of the LPA. If the latest prediction turns out to be correct, the country will have a third consecutive year of normal monsoon. The last time this happened was in the 1996-1998 period. The IMD has based its revised forecast on the observation that some monsoon-related phenomena in the Pacific Ocean, like the El Nino, would be neutral this year.

A bountiful monsoon will be good for agriculture, which is the only sector that held up when all other sectors of the economy went down last year. The IMD’s territorial forecast of rainfall also points to a benevolent agricultural year. The projection is that rainfall will be normal in southern and north-west India, above normal in central and parts of eastern India, and below normal in the north-east. The below-normal rainfall in the north-east may not have a major negative impact because the average rainfall there is usually more than in other parts of the country. The above-normal monsoon in central India is especially beneficial because agriculture in those parts is largely rain-fed. Plentiful rainfall is good for crops like oilseeds, pulses and coarse cereals which are mainly grown in low-irrigation areas. It is likely that there will be another bumper harvest this year.

The IMD has started a new forecasting model this year which will give advance information about the spatial distribution of rain. It will make monthly predictions, starting this month, about the progress of the monsoon across the country, and this will help agriculture and all other activities on which the monsoon has a bearing. The predictions have to be correct and dependable so that plans can be made either to make use of the rain or to prevent its harmful impact. Medium and short-term forecasts are of immense value, and the IMD needs to improve its capabilities to make them. Early warnings will help make preparations to counter problems like floods and landslides or to counter situations arising from a pause or failure of monsoon. Such warnings will be particularly important and useful at a time when the focus of attention will be on fighting the pandemic.