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Netanyahu’s failed gamble in Israel

Last Updated 24 September 2019, 17:14 IST

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s gamble of going back to the people for a stronger mandate has failed to yield the result he desired. The recently held general election, which followed another that took place in April this year, has given his Likud Party 31 seats. This is four seats less than what it won in the April election. Likud has also slipped to second place. Unlike in April, when Likud tied with the Blue and White party, this time it is the latter that has won the most seats and will get the first shot at government formation. It will need the support of other parties to form a stable government. Former defence minister Avigdor Lieberman has emerged a likely kingmaker as head of the secular-nationalist Yisrael Beitenu party. Some hard bargaining and horse-trading are expected in the coming weeks. Kahol Lavan is likely to lead a coalition government, signalling the end of the Netanyahu era. However, it is too early to write off Netanyahu’s political career. His capacity for manoeuvring and manipulation is well-known and he could still return to power. Voter turnout in the recent election was higher (70%) than in April(68.5%). Netanyahu’s maligning of Arab Israelis with a view to attracting Jewish hardliners boomeranged as it prompted Arab Israeli voters to show up in large numbers for voting this time around.

Although votes were scattered among around 27 parties, the bulk went to the broad political centre, which has lost interest not only in a negotiated settlement with the Palestinians but also in a two-state solution. Campaigns run by Likud, Blue and White and Yisrael Beitenu point to only small differences on important issues including the Israel-Palestinian conflict, the regional conflict with Iran, the economy and ties with the US. An end to the Netanyahu era will therefore not mean any significant change in the new Israeli government’s policy on the Palestinian question. Interestingly, support for a two-state solution among Palestinians too has dropped sharply. A survey conducted in the run-up to the recent Israeli election indicated that only 42% of Palestinians now support the two-state solution, down from 70% a decade ago when Netanyahu entered the office.

The two-state solution to the Israel-Palestine conflict envisages two separate and sovereign states, Israel and Palestine, co-existing side by side. Dwindling support for this solution is worrying as it means that Israelis are eying a final solution via aggression. Fed up of waiting for the emergence of a sovereign Palestinian state, Palestinians too are on the warpath. With both sides preparing to bury the two-state solution, the possibility of all-out fighting looms. The new Israeli government must conduct itself with responsibility. Trashing of the two-state solution is not an option.

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(Published 24 September 2019, 17:02 IST)

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