<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the devastation it has caused there are expected to trigger a catastrophic food crisis worldwide. The two countries are major producers of food grains, with Russia and Ukraine ranking the largest and fifth-largest exporters of wheat in the world. According to the FAO, together they provide 19% of the world’s barley supply, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize. They account for a third of the world’s cereal exports and over half the world’s sunflower oil exports. Not surprisingly then, any disruption in the production and transport of food grains from Russia and Ukraine would have a crippling impact on global food availability. Cereal crops will be ready for harvest in Ukraine in June. Will the situation there permit farmers to harvest then? Mass displacement has taken place in Ukraine; will farmers find labourers to harvest the crops?</p>.<p>Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been shut down and insurance premiums to ship food exports through the Turkish Straits have surged. The cutback in grain supply and the rising cost of shipping grains will result in a sharp spike in prices. While Russia’s Black Sea ports are still functioning, western sanctions could severely restrict its exports. In addition to grains, Russia is a leading manufacturer of fertilisers and a reduction in fertiliser supply is expected to halve agricultural produce in countries that depend on Russian fertilisers.</p>.<p>The food crisis is likely to hit countries in Asia and Africa the hardest. At the best of times, countries on these continents suffer shocking levels of hunger and starvation. The pandemic-induced breakdown in global supply chains worsened these problems. The Ukraine crisis has hit them even before they could recover. Russia and Ukraine meet half of Bangladesh’s wheat requirements; almost 40% of Pakistan’s wheat comes from Ukraine. Since India is among the world’s top 10 wheat exporters, it will not be adversely impacted by the cutback on Ukrainian wheat. It would, in fact, be in a position to ease the looming food crisis in the region and to this end should step up production of wheat and other grains. Being heavily dependent on Russia for potash and phosphate, which are key ingredients in fertilisers, Indian agriculture could also suffer a hit. Additionally, India gets 90% of its sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia. The government must look for alternative suppliers immediately. Food security experts have warned the world that the big question is not whether a food crisis lies ahead but how massive that crisis will be.</p>
<p>The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the devastation it has caused there are expected to trigger a catastrophic food crisis worldwide. The two countries are major producers of food grains, with Russia and Ukraine ranking the largest and fifth-largest exporters of wheat in the world. According to the FAO, together they provide 19% of the world’s barley supply, 14% of wheat, and 4% of maize. They account for a third of the world’s cereal exports and over half the world’s sunflower oil exports. Not surprisingly then, any disruption in the production and transport of food grains from Russia and Ukraine would have a crippling impact on global food availability. Cereal crops will be ready for harvest in Ukraine in June. Will the situation there permit farmers to harvest then? Mass displacement has taken place in Ukraine; will farmers find labourers to harvest the crops?</p>.<p>Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have been shut down and insurance premiums to ship food exports through the Turkish Straits have surged. The cutback in grain supply and the rising cost of shipping grains will result in a sharp spike in prices. While Russia’s Black Sea ports are still functioning, western sanctions could severely restrict its exports. In addition to grains, Russia is a leading manufacturer of fertilisers and a reduction in fertiliser supply is expected to halve agricultural produce in countries that depend on Russian fertilisers.</p>.<p>The food crisis is likely to hit countries in Asia and Africa the hardest. At the best of times, countries on these continents suffer shocking levels of hunger and starvation. The pandemic-induced breakdown in global supply chains worsened these problems. The Ukraine crisis has hit them even before they could recover. Russia and Ukraine meet half of Bangladesh’s wheat requirements; almost 40% of Pakistan’s wheat comes from Ukraine. Since India is among the world’s top 10 wheat exporters, it will not be adversely impacted by the cutback on Ukrainian wheat. It would, in fact, be in a position to ease the looming food crisis in the region and to this end should step up production of wheat and other grains. Being heavily dependent on Russia for potash and phosphate, which are key ingredients in fertilisers, Indian agriculture could also suffer a hit. Additionally, India gets 90% of its sunflower oil from Ukraine and Russia. The government must look for alternative suppliers immediately. Food security experts have warned the world that the big question is not whether a food crisis lies ahead but how massive that crisis will be.</p>
