Putin’s plan to stay in power

President Vladimir Putin’s call for constitutional changes that envisage a weaker presidency while bestowing more power on the Russian Parliament and the office of the prime minister has taken the world by surprise. Not only has it shaken the Russian political establishment but it has also triggered a tidal wave of speculation in Russia and abroad over Putin’s future plans for himself. The Russian Constitution bars a president from serving more than two consecutive terms. This means that in 2024, when Putin’s second consecutive term as president ends, he cannot seek another presidential term. Of course, he could do what he did in 2008, when his first two consecutive terms as president—he has served a total of four presidential terms so far—ended. Then, he simply swapped roles with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev for four years before returning to the presidency in 2012. Putin’s critics say that his constitutional reforms are aimed at ensuring a smooth transition for himself to a newly-empowered and beefed-up role as prime minister in 2024. Putin has said that the suggested constitutional reforms will be put to vote in a national referendum. He appears to be giving the planned extension of his political career a veneer of popular consent.

Within hours of Putin’s speech, Prime Minister Medvedev and his Cabinet resigned, easing the way for Putin to appoint new ministers. Mikhail Mishustin, a technocrat, has been named Russia’s new prime minister and Medvedev as deputy chairman of Russia’s State Council, which is headed by Putin. This has triggered more speculation over Putin’s future moves. Some believe that he may be considering following the path of Nursultan Nazarbayev, who after a 29-year-long unbroken stint as Kazakhstan’s president, stepped down to become chairman for life of its powerful Security Council. Given that Putin is hardly the type to embrace a quiet retirement post-2024, he can be expected to hold on to the key levers of power by helming the State Council. In his speech on Wednesday, Putin suggested elevating the State Council, currently an advisory body, and bestowing it with more constitutional authority and power.

On the face of it, it does seem that Putin’s plans for constitutional reforms will pave the way for his smooth and easy return to power post-2020. However, the path is not obstacle-free. Putin’s popularity ratings have been declining. The Russian economy is in trouble and powerful demonstrations protesting his rule have erupted on the streets of Moscow from time-to-time. Importantly, Russia will vote in parliamentary elections in 2021. Pro-Putin parties and politicians will have to do well in that election for Putin’s proposed reforms unfold as planned.