US, China must find a modus vivendi

The meeting between US President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit at Bali was important. For one, it came at a time when relations have frayed significantly over a string of issues, ranging from the conflict over Taiwan and the Russian invasion of Ukraine to American restrictions on China’s access to semiconductor technology.

This was the first in-person meeting between the two leaders since Biden became US President two years ago. After the meeting, Biden said he and Xi were “very blunt with one another,” while the Chinese spokesperson described the discussions as “in-depth, candid and constructive” -- diplomatese for the airing of differences. According to the Chinese readout, Xi stressed that Taiwan remains "the very core of China's core interests…and the first red line that must not be crossed in US-China relations.”

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The White House statement said that Biden raised China’s harsh policies towards minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet, trade, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Although the two sides did not produce a joint statement, the two leaders seem to have found some common ground. Both opposed the use, and the threat of use, of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, although the Chinese readout was silent on this.

After the meeting, Biden told reporters that he did not think that there is “any imminent attempt on the part of China to invade Taiwan.” Biden, who had earlier said that the US would defend Taiwan if it was attacked by China, reportedly told Xi that “US policy on Taiwan has not changed at all.” There is a semblance of the desire to make conciliatory noises.

Competition between the US and China is inevitable. However, the two countries must manage it in a way that tensions do not boil over into violent conflict. Both sides hyped the bellicosity of the other during the recent Taiwan crisis, almost dragging them into a war. They must avoid this going forward. There are threats to global security that the US and China could work on together to avert. Foremost among these is climate change, which is expected to trigger a tidal wave of migration and armed confrontations. The two countries should provide leadership in tackling climate change and its impacts.

The US-China rivalry, specifically the US desire to “decouple” the two economies and Xi Jinping’s plan to build a “dual circulation” economy and achieve global technological and economic dominance are threatening to divide the world into two opposing trading blocs, forcing other countries to choose between them. The US and China must find ways to compete with each other while avoiding such a disruption in global trade.