Will the Taliban keep the peace?

The United States and the Taliban have signed a historic agreement. This is the first time that the two adversaries have reached a pact that has potential to end the decades of fighting in Afghanistan. The Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan provides for reduction of American troop levels and an intra-Afghan dialogue, along with timelines when they would have to be implemented. All American and coalition troops, contractors and non-diplomatic personnel will have to be withdrawn from Afghanistan over a 14-month period with 8,600 of them to be pulled out within the first 135 days. Talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban are to begin on March 10. The Taliban has also committed to prevent any group, including al-Qaeda, from using Afghan soil to threaten or carry out attacks on the US and its allies. Importantly, the agreement provides for the release of 5,000 Taliban prisoners and 1,000 "prisoners of the other side" on the first day of intra-Afghan negotiations.

The agreement has prompted scepticism the world over. Will the signatories fulfil their commitments? Many fear that the Taliban will resume fighting once the coalition troops have left, or perhaps even earlier. Few expect the agreement to lead to a de-escalation in violence, let alone peace. Women deeply fear the likely return of the Taliban to power. None of these apprehensions can be brushed away easily. Still, given how difficult it has been to bring the Taliban to the negotiating table, the agreement is a step forward. The US has said that its withdrawal of troops will be linked to progress at the negotiation table. The step-by-step approach could put pressure on the Taliban to comply if it wants to see American troops leave. President Donald Trump must pace the withdrawal of troops based on an assessment of the ground situation in Afghanistan rather than his election timetable at home.

India was an observer at the signing ceremony in Doha. This is a milestone, as Delhi has avoided official interaction with the Taliban hitherto. The agreement has evoked enormous apprehension in New Delhi. The pact legitimizes the Taliban and marks a victory of sorts for Pakistan. New Delhi is worried that the Taliban’s return to its old, brutal ways is a matter of time and that India’s sizeable achievements in building strong ties with Kabul and reconstructing Afghanistan are in jeopardy. India’s apprehensions are valid. Still it must move away from being the nay-sayer to a facilitator of the agreement. It must continue to ensure that the settlement reached is one that is Afghan-owned and not controlled from Islamabad, Beijing or Washington. As Afghanistan prepares for a critical period, India must stand by the Afghan people, pushing for and promoting peace.