<p>The re-election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States will pose both challenges and opportunities in US-South Asia relations. The future scenario will depend on how the US, under Trump 2.0, conceptualises its political, economic, trade and strategic priorities collectively and individually with the countries in South Asia. In the context of India-US ties, the challenges that China poses in the Indo-Pacific will remain a point of convergence between the two countries. During his first term, Trump shifted the focus from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific, resulting in high levels of strategic convergence between India and the US, especially in defence and security relations. Trump’s visit to India in February 2020 reaffirmed the security partnership between the two countries, which has continued to strengthen. The US is now India’s third-largest source of arms, after Russia and France.</p>.<p>China’s growing economic and strategic footprint in South Asia will add to the concerns of both India and the US. Trump will continue to leverage India’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region. During his first term, Trump played a crucial role in revitalising the Quad. India will remain a natural partner for the US, along with Japan and Australia, to counter China. However, New Delhi emphasises the need for an inclusive approach to the Indo-Pacific, rather than a purely China-centric perspective <br>as seen by Washington. Incoming President Trump would expect greater involvement by India in the Indian Ocean region.</p>.<p>Tensions in India-US ties will continue in the realms of trade and immigration. Trump is expected to continue pressing India on trade and business. During his first term, the Generalised System of Preferences status for India was removed. There will also be pressure on India to reduce tariff barriers and comply with intellectual property rights. These pressure points will persist under Trump 2.0. Yet, the relationship is expected to proceed along a positive trajectory, though not without hiccups and challenges.</p>.<p>US-Pakistan ties faced significant challenges during Trump’s first term, especially due to Islamabad’s policies on the war on terror. Relations deteriorated under former Prime Minister Imran Khan (2018-2022). In 2018, Pakistan was placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, and US security assistance of $1.3 billion was cut off. Despite cooperation in counter-terrorism, immediate rapprochement seems unlikely. Pakistan’s importance in US foreign policy has fluctuated based on strategic interests and its stance on terrorism. No immediate deviations from Trump’s first term are expected in his second term. One wonders whether Imran Khan’s followers in the US and his rapport with Trump could make a difference. For this to happen, Islamabad not only has its work cut out but also needs to get its act together.</p>.<p>The US is the main destination for Bangladesh’s exports and its biggest source of FDI. The US-Bangladesh Business Council was established in 2021, and business delegations have been visiting Bangladesh. Military exercises and frequent diplomatic engagements have taken place. President Biden has supported the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. Protection of minorities, especially Hindus, has been a concern, as Trump’s spiritual advisor Johnnie Moore pointed out. Trump himself described Bangladesh as being in a “total state of chaos”. Past relations between Trump and Yunus were strained by Yunus’ 2016 decision to make a big donation to the Hillary Clinton Foundation. Both Sheikh Hasina and Mohammad Yunus have congratulated Trump on his victory, with the former referring to herself as the prime minister. This indicates the complexity and challenges ahead for US-Bangladesh relations under Trump 2.0.</p>.<p>Sri Lanka and Nepal have adopted a wait-and-watch attitude. Any increase in tariffs is bound to significantly impact Sri Lanka’s exports, especially apparel exports to the US. The victory of the JVP/NPP in the presidential elections marks a major shift in Sri Lankan politics. US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu’s visit to Sri Lanka, Nepal and India in December 2024 perhaps suggests that there will be continuity with change under Trump 2.0.</p>.<p>This time around, South Asia is better prepared for Trump’s return to the White House. Trump 2.0 may not entirely reshape the trajectory of US-South Asia ties. There will be elements of both continuity and change. Washington is aware of its preeminent status in the Indo-Pacific region, which will have a bearing on South Asia as well. The transactional nature of Trump’s leadership style means he will address issues based on a cost-benefit analysis. Trump 2.0 will generate both hope and concern, and countries in South Asia will have to learn to face the challenges and capitalise on the opportunities.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a professor in the Department of International Studies, Political Science and History, Christ Deemed to be University, Bengaluru)</em></p>
<p>The re-election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States will pose both challenges and opportunities in US-South Asia relations. The future scenario will depend on how the US, under Trump 2.0, conceptualises its political, economic, trade and strategic priorities collectively and individually with the countries in South Asia. In the context of India-US ties, the challenges that China poses in the Indo-Pacific will remain a point of convergence between the two countries. During his first term, Trump shifted the focus from the Asia-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific, resulting in high levels of strategic convergence between India and the US, especially in defence and security relations. Trump’s visit to India in February 2020 reaffirmed the security partnership between the two countries, which has continued to strengthen. The US is now India’s third-largest source of arms, after Russia and France.</p>.<p>China’s growing economic and strategic footprint in South Asia will add to the concerns of both India and the US. Trump will continue to leverage India’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region. During his first term, Trump played a crucial role in revitalising the Quad. India will remain a natural partner for the US, along with Japan and Australia, to counter China. However, New Delhi emphasises the need for an inclusive approach to the Indo-Pacific, rather than a purely China-centric perspective <br>as seen by Washington. Incoming President Trump would expect greater involvement by India in the Indian Ocean region.</p>.<p>Tensions in India-US ties will continue in the realms of trade and immigration. Trump is expected to continue pressing India on trade and business. During his first term, the Generalised System of Preferences status for India was removed. There will also be pressure on India to reduce tariff barriers and comply with intellectual property rights. These pressure points will persist under Trump 2.0. Yet, the relationship is expected to proceed along a positive trajectory, though not without hiccups and challenges.</p>.<p>US-Pakistan ties faced significant challenges during Trump’s first term, especially due to Islamabad’s policies on the war on terror. Relations deteriorated under former Prime Minister Imran Khan (2018-2022). In 2018, Pakistan was placed on the Financial Action Task Force’s grey list, and US security assistance of $1.3 billion was cut off. Despite cooperation in counter-terrorism, immediate rapprochement seems unlikely. Pakistan’s importance in US foreign policy has fluctuated based on strategic interests and its stance on terrorism. No immediate deviations from Trump’s first term are expected in his second term. One wonders whether Imran Khan’s followers in the US and his rapport with Trump could make a difference. For this to happen, Islamabad not only has its work cut out but also needs to get its act together.</p>.<p>The US is the main destination for Bangladesh’s exports and its biggest source of FDI. The US-Bangladesh Business Council was established in 2021, and business delegations have been visiting Bangladesh. Military exercises and frequent diplomatic engagements have taken place. President Biden has supported the interim government led by Mohammad Yunus. Protection of minorities, especially Hindus, has been a concern, as Trump’s spiritual advisor Johnnie Moore pointed out. Trump himself described Bangladesh as being in a “total state of chaos”. Past relations between Trump and Yunus were strained by Yunus’ 2016 decision to make a big donation to the Hillary Clinton Foundation. Both Sheikh Hasina and Mohammad Yunus have congratulated Trump on his victory, with the former referring to herself as the prime minister. This indicates the complexity and challenges ahead for US-Bangladesh relations under Trump 2.0.</p>.<p>Sri Lanka and Nepal have adopted a wait-and-watch attitude. Any increase in tariffs is bound to significantly impact Sri Lanka’s exports, especially apparel exports to the US. The victory of the JVP/NPP in the presidential elections marks a major shift in Sri Lankan politics. US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Donald Lu’s visit to Sri Lanka, Nepal and India in December 2024 perhaps suggests that there will be continuity with change under Trump 2.0.</p>.<p>This time around, South Asia is better prepared for Trump’s return to the White House. Trump 2.0 may not entirely reshape the trajectory of US-South Asia ties. There will be elements of both continuity and change. Washington is aware of its preeminent status in the Indo-Pacific region, which will have a bearing on South Asia as well. The transactional nature of Trump’s leadership style means he will address issues based on a cost-benefit analysis. Trump 2.0 will generate both hope and concern, and countries in South Asia will have to learn to face the challenges and capitalise on the opportunities.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a professor in the Department of International Studies, Political Science and History, Christ Deemed to be University, Bengaluru)</em></p>
