Strategic and religious symbolism of Nepal PM's India visit

India and the US have converging strategic interests, view China's growing belligerence as a threat, which should stand New Delhi in good stead in countering Beijing in Nepal

The pandemic may have prevented Nepalese Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba from making his first bilateral visit to India sooner. But Deuba and his Indian hosts have ensured he will be able to combine diplomacy with a generous dollop of Hindu religious fervour with visits to the Kashi Vishwanath temple and the Nepali Mandir in Varanasi during his three-day visit to India beginning April 1.

The Varanasi visit is particularly important for Deuba and his party in an election year with certain outfits in Nepal busy whipping up Hindu nationalist sentiments. Appointed PM for a fifth time after his predecessor K P Sharma Oli's attempts to retain power were scuttled by Nepal's Supreme Court, Deuba is looking to win a sixth term in office.

While the ruling BJP party in India would undoubtedly be pleased with Varanasi being a part of Deuba's itinerary, the focus of South Block mandarins would decidedly be on the ever-expanding Chinese footprint in Nepal. It is, perhaps, no coincidence that Deuba's visit to India was announced by the South Block within days of Chinese foreign minister and state councillor Wang Yi's three-day visit to Nepal last week.

The increasing sway Beijing now has on political parties across the spectrum in Nepal was evident when the Deuba government hosted Wang Yi even before he could make his India trip. The Deuba-led Nepali Congress has traditionally been seen as allied with Indian interests, unlike the Communist parties.

However, a lot of water has flowed under the bridge from the time when India considered itself the sole benefactor of Nepal, secure in the knowledge that it had close and civilisational ties with its neighbour.

Regardless of their ideology, political parties in Nepal have been eagerly embracing China, which has been wooing the strategically located Himalayan nation with the huge financial and other resources at its command.

Although India has also spared no effort to execute development projects in Nepal, which straddle different sectors, and considers development cooperation with the country "one of the fundamental pillars of the bilateral partnership", the Chinese moves present a daunting challenge for New Delhi.

The Chinese dragon has been slowly but surely shrinking India's sphere of influence in Nepal. This, in turn, also threatens India's security interests with increasing Chinese presence at its doorstep as Nepal's political parties tango with Beijing.

During Wang Yi's visit, the two sides inked nine agreements ranging from those focused on infrastructure to education. But if it's any matter of consolation for India, China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which Nepal joined in 2017, remains a non-starter despite repeated iterations by Beijing that it remains committed to it.

While the BRI seems headed nowhere in Nepal, the Deuba government recently saw through the ratification of the US-funded Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) Compact by the country's Parliament. The Compact will bring in $500 million to Nepal to build infrastructure, which clearly has Beijing annoyed and concerned as bitter rival US increases its focus on the landlocked nation that lies sandwiched between India and China.

Nepal now finds itself caught in the crosshairs of the `Great Game', as India, China and now the US jostle for influence. New Delhi would expectedly be keen to tell an 'India-friendly' government that its strategic interests need to be kept in mind when Deuba comes visiting.

That India and the US have converging strategic interests, and view China's growing belligerence as a threat to the world at large, should stand New Delhi in good stead in countering Beijing in Nepal.

Deuba's visit was long overdue with Nepalese PMs traditionally making India their first port of call after taking charge. But New Delhi had to wait eight long months for Deuba, who became PM for a record fifth time in July last year, to be able to visit India. A visit scheduled in January had to be cancelled when the Omicron variant of the Covid pandemic was raging.

Both the Indian establishment and the veteran politician are well acquainted with each other, so each side will be speaking their mind during the visit. The two sides need to find a way to resolve the prickly disputes like the territorial one over Kalapani, Lipulekh and Limpiyadhura instead of allowing them to fester and be an irritant in bilateral ties.

New Delhi also needs to look into Nepal's consistent demand for a review of the 1950 Treaty of Peace Friendship. The 2018 report of an Eminent Persons Group that looked into this Treaty, among other things, and suggested this pact be replaced with a new one in keeping with the changed times, has been given a quiet burial.

While it's not unusual for world leaders to visit places of worship during their travels abroad, Deuba's Varanasi stopover on April 3 is loaded with political significance for the ruling parties in both Nepal and India – the Nepali Congress and the BJP.

In visiting a city considered holy by Hindus, Deuba will be hoping to reach out to that constituency in Nepal that believes his country should be declared a Hindu rashtra even though it chose secularism when its new Constitution was promulgated in 2015.

The push for a Hindu state in Nepal is perceived as having received a fillip ever since the BJP swept to power in India in 2014. The Nepalese media has been reporting that Sangh Parivar outfits have been active in Nepal, fuelling the demand for a Hindu rashtra.

Naturally, then, the BJP-led Indian government is happy to host the PM of a Hindu majority nation in Varanasi, which also happens to be PM Narendra Modi's parliamentary constituency.

Deuba isn't the only one among top Nepalese politicians seeking to woo those who favour Nepal's return to a Hindu state. Even Deuba's predecessor, K P Sharma Oli, who leads the Communist Party of Nepal (UML), was not averse to playing the Hindu nationalism card despite his Leftist credentials. He famously once declared that Lord Rama's birthplace was in Nepal and not Ayodhya in India. South Block, on its part, has to ensure that the China card in Nepal does not get further play.

(The writer is a senior journalist.)