Students launch a party but Bangladesh still on a slippery slope

Many fear that the Army Chief’s ‘warning’ may be a precursor to an army takeover.

The student groups that led the July uprising in Bangladesh — Students Against Discrimination and the Jatiyo Nagorik Committee — have finally formed their own political party, the Jatiya Nagorik Party (National Citizens' Party). Student leader Mohammad Nahid Islam, who resigned as a minister in the interim government, is the convener of the new political party.

Even this momentous event is unlikely to bring stability to Bangladesh. The performance of the interim government has been below par and the economic problems faced by the country persist.

Food inflation officially was about 13% in December, although a report from the Economic White Paper Committee claimed that overall inflation was between 15 to 17%. Wages have not kept pace with inflation.

There is widespread belief that the interim government’s various advisers (ministers) are out of touch with the ground reality. Chief adviser Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, for example, has not travelled to rural Bangladesh ever since he took office. The same is apparently true of most of his ministers.

The structure of the interim government is also arbitrary. A dozen commissions set up to ‘reform’ and restructure the polity have submitted their reports. However, no attempt has been made to start a dialogue with the political parties to get their consent for the proposed reforms.

Bangladesh’s law-and-order situation has deteriorated with dacoity, robbery, murder, kidnapping, burglary, and theft all showing a marked rise this January over January 2024. Facing calls for his resignation in the face of growing crime, the home affairs adviser of the interim government called a press conference at the unearthly hour of 3 AM. While journalists turned up assuming that he would announce his resignation, he only made the incredulous claim that the law-and-order situation was satisfactory!

Against the background of the interim government seemingly unable to get its act together, the “warning” issued by Army Chief General Waker-uz-Zaman, on February 25, has caused some alarm in the country.

He blamed Bangladesh’s deteriorating law-and-order situation to infighting among the political actors, and said sternly, “I am warning you now. Don’t say I didn’t warn you later. If we don’t set aside our divisions and work together, if we keep engaging in mud-slinging, fighting, and bickering, the country’s independence and sovereignty will be at risk.”

Many fear that the warning may be a precursor to an army takeover. Others, however, claim that even while issuing the warning, the army chief had talked about holding the general elections by December or thereabouts.

The absence of a clear roadmap to elections has fuelled speculations about a possible coup in Bangladesh. Everyone talks of national elections in December 2025, but no clear milestones or sequencing of steps leading to the elections have been specified.

The political parties are divided over whether local body elections should be held first or the national elections. Those which are organised and have a party structure in place want the national elections first to prevent the re-emergence of the Awami League. Those without a party structure want to use the local government elections to build their cadre and party structure.

One of the two constituents of the July uprising, the Jatiya Nagorik Committee, has announced that it is in favour of holding the local government elections first. The Jamaat-e-Islami, which had been banned by the Sheikh Hasina government but was revived with her fall, would like more time to reorganise itself. The students-led Jatiya Nagorik Party also has to get its act together. Therefore, both would prefer the general elections to be pushed back as far as possible.

The BNP, which is the largest institutionalised party today, wants the national elections first with ‘minimal reforms’ and the local body elections to follow afterwards. Its Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir has asserted that his party wants national elections first “since the crisis lies there”. BNP Acting President Tarique Rahman, addressing a party meeting virtually on February 27, claimed that holding local polls before the national election would “rehabilitate allies of the fugitive autocrat”, meaning Awami League sympathisers

The distinct tendency among the student activists towards Islamist ideology is disturbing. This ideological affinity could pave the way for political collaboration and a possible alliance between the Jatiya Nagorik Party and the Jamaat.

The Jamaat, however, seems to be playing the long game. It is focusing on capturing organisations in universities and student hostels, organising and preparing cadre for the long haul. It eventually wants to fill the vacuum created by peoples’ disenchantment with the existing political parties, and is in no hurry to grab power immediately.

Of the two traditional parties, the Awami League is in disarray with a number of its leaders in jail or in exile. While the student activists want the Awami League banned from contesting elections, its traditional rival the BNP has said that it would like the party to contest elections. “We want the Awami League to contest elections, and we will defeat them through the electoral process. The people of this country have ousted them through revolution and now they will defeat them through the ballot,” Alamgir said.

The BNP seems placed at a relative advantage for the impending general elections; the student-led party is likely to garner votes in urban areas. The rural voter is still likely to opt between familiar party symbols.

What is disquieting for the BNP is the fact that a section of its cadre is allegedly stepping in to take over the extortion in markets and boat jetties which used to be the domain of the previous regime’s acolytes. Taking note of the seriousness of the development, the BNP has been expelling anyone accused of extortion in large numbers. The party apparently wants to send a strong signal to the masses that it will not tolerate an extortion mafia within its ranks.

The fundamental question, however, still is whether elections will be held as promised and under the existing electoral system. The student activists want a system based on proportional representation, which the traditional parties are opposed to. Whether such a system can be implemented before the promised elections in December remains doubtful.

(The writer was in Bangladesh earlier this week)

(Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not represent the views of DH.