Sunetra ascends, Sharad Pawar looms: What awaits NCP?

Ajit Pawar, was an eight-term MLA and a six-time deputy chief minister with over three decades of ministerial experience

The sudden death of Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) president and Maharashtra’s Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar in a plane crash in his hometown of Baramati has jolted Maharashtra’s politics and thrown the future of the NCP into uncertainty of sorts. His passing does not merely create a leadership vacuum. It unsettles a delicate equilibrium between rival factions of the NCP and their relationship with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Ajit Pawar, 66, was an eight-term MLA and a six-time deputy chief minister with over three decades of ministerial experience. Within days of his death, the party’s leadership—including working president Praful Patel and Maharashtra unit president Sunil Tatkare—moved quickly to prevent drift.

On January 31, the NCP legislature party elected his wife, Sunetra Pawar (62), as its leader. She was later sworn in as the deputy chief minister by Governor Acharya Devvrat. The party is also expected to elevate her as its national president in her late husband’s place in the weeks to come. 

In June-July 2023, Ajit Pawar broke away from the original NCP led by his uncle and mentor Sharad Pawar, forming what was eventually recognised as the official NCP by the Election Commission of India with a clock as its symbol. On the other hand, Sharad Pawar, a four-time chief minister, three-time Union Minister having handled defence and agriculture portfolios, and a former Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, had to settle with NCP (SP) and the tutari (man blowing trumpet) as its symbol. 

The split reflected deep polarising differences: Ajit Pawar aligning with the BJP-led Maha Yuti-NDA ruling alliance in Maharashtra, while Sharad Pawar remained committed to the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA)—the opposition marquee coalition with Congress and the Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT), with the I.N.D.I.A bloc. 

Sunetra Pawar: A new political force?

Sunetra Pawar’s rise signals continuity, but it also raises questions. Unlike her husband, fondly called Ajit dada, she does not possess decades of political experience. Her authority currently flows from legacy and sentiment; the decision of Sunetra vahini, as she is called, will be unquestionable, for now. 

NCP leaders such as Chhagan Bhujbal, Dilip Walse-Patil and Dhananjay Munde have publicly indicated that any further merger decision between the NCP factions would rest with her once she formally assumed the presidency. That acknowledgement underlines her centrality. 

She must, however, balance competing pressures: maintaining the alliance with the BJP, responding to overtures from Sharad Pawar’s camp, and keeping her own legislators united.

The Sharad Pawar factor

Even at 85, Sharad Pawar remains the elder statesman and moral anchor of the NCP (SP). Supriya Sule (56), Sharad Pawar’s daughter and four-time MP from Baramati, has played a prominent role in this faction’s strategy and is the political heir to Sharad Pawar. In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, she defeated Sunetra Pawar in Baramati—the family bastion—underlining the enduring strength of senior Pawar’s base. Sunetra later entered the Rajya Sabha with the BJP’s support. 

For many within the NCP camp, the central concern about a possible merger is straightforward: in any merged entity, would saheb (Sharad Pawar) resume control? His reputation as the ‘Maratha strongman’, ‘Chanakya’, ‘Machiavelli’ and ‘Bheeshma Pitamaha of Indian politics’ continues to inspire loyalty.  After the split, Pawar senior worked to sustain the NCP (SP)’s organisational presence and reaffirm its ideological roots in the opposition. As for Supriya Sule, she has been cautious about discussing merger possibilities.

One of the most consequential debates in the NCP’s future revolves around whether reunification between the two factions is feasible — and, if so, what form it might take.

Before Ajit Pawar’s death, signals from both sides suggested that back-channel talks were underway. Sharad Pawar had hinted at February as a potential timeline for clarity. NCP (SP) leaders like Jayant Patil and state unit president Shashikant Shinde had openly spoken about the impending merger. Those conversations appear to have slowed, if not stalled.

Ideologically, the distance between the factions is not great, as both are committed to progressive ideas; religion is not the focal point of their politics. 

In September 2025, at the Nagpur Rashtrawadi Chintan Shivir, Ajit Pawar had reiterated the NCP’s commitment to the idea of sarva dharma sambhav and the guiding thought of ‘Shiv-Shahu-Phule-Ambedkar’ while also asserting commitment to the alliance with the BJP for the welfare and development of Maharashtra. Will Senior Pawar and his daughter go with the BJP? This is now a big question. 

There were murmurs that leaders would seek clearance for the merger from the BJP higher-ups when Sunetra Pawar, her sons and the Patel-Tatkare duo called on Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who were briefed by Fadnavis. 

Importantly, this is not just an internal matter of NCP; the BJP’s reactions and calculations influence the pace and possibilities of any merger.  A unified NCP, especially under Sharad Pawar’s stewardship, could complicate the BJP’s dominance in several districts ahead of the 2029 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections.

Speculation about the BJP eventually absorbing large sections of the NCP persists in political circles. Yet a formal merger appears unlikely for now. The BJP benefits more from partnership than from outright assimilation. For the BJP, leveraging the NCP’s organisational strength and grassroots network—especially in rural Maharashtra, particularly in the sugar belt—is very important. 

Nevertheless, the BJP’s influence certainly shaped the post-split landscape, giving Ajit Pawar’s faction dominant visibility and legislative relevance. Its ongoing support will remain a key factor in how the NCP’s future pans out, especially in terms of seat shares, electoral pacts, and governance roles in Maharashtra.