Tamil Nadu likely to see a three-way contest, defying prediction

As Tamil Nadu heads to the polls, there has never been an election in recent memory that has been as difficult to predict. With confusion galore in the alliances of the two major parties — the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) — and the emergence of the dark horse, actor Vijay’s Tamizhaga Vettri Kazhagam(TVK), the election leaves seem tough to read.

The continued difficulties in the DMK-Congress alliance have created an interesting dynamic that few could have anticipated. For months, it was assumed that the Congress would stick with its tried and tested partner, the DMK, and maybe haggle for a few more seats than the 25 it contested in 2021. Instead, the Congress raised the demand for power sharing, which is not an unreasonable ask, but one which both Dravidian parties have strongly opposed in Tamil Nadu.

As of this moment, there is no saying which way the Congress will go, as it is simultaneously in talks with the TVK, which reportedly has given it a blank cheque in terms of the number of seats it could contest. Even if the Congress throws in its lot with the DMK, the tensions between the two have persisted too long for there not to be lingering acrimony on the ground. The last time it contested alone, the Congress won about 4.8% of the votes, and while this number may not be large, its exit may tilt the scales against the DMK.

The DMK alliance is seen as the frontrunner in this upcoming Assembly election, and the Congress’ exit will deal a massive blow to that perception.

If the Congress ties up with the TVK, it would be granting political legitimacy to Vijay — something he desperately needs. Over the last 15 months, the actor-politician has repeatedly said his party is open to alliances with those who accept him as the chief ministerial candidate; not one party, big or small, has signed up. Bagging the Congress would be a coup for him.

Vijay himself has been beset by problems, political and personal. A divorce petition filed by his wife in December was leaked to the media, containing allegations of a relationship with an actress. While this in itself is unlikely to have a major impact in a state where it is not uncommon for politicians to be associated with multiple women, allegations of domestic abuse could significantly impact Vijay’s support among women voters.

Politically, the TVK has been struggling to find its feet. It has been unable to run a continuous campaign and is left largely with holding a public meeting once every 10 days or so, where Vijay addresses large crowds. The second-rung leaders are unable to helm the ship effectively, and the organisation looks to be little more than his fans deployed as office bearers. Their messaging has also not been consistent, with silence on several important issues. Despite all this, multiple surveys show the TVK with over 15% of the popular vote, making it a key party in deciding the polls.

The NDA, the other big player in the fray, is also struggling to get its act together. The addition of the PMK of Anbumani Ramadoss and the AMMK of TTV Dhinakaran to the AIADMK-BJP-TMC combine seemed to have given them a much-needed boost, but the subsequent loss of late actor Vijayakanth’s DMDK to the DMK alliance and former chief minister O Paneerselvam, referred to by his supporters as OPS, joining the DMK have left the NDA searching for momentum again.

For OPS, it must have been humiliating to join the party he has opposed for the last 40 years. After the doors to his re-entry into the AIADMK were firmly shut by AIADMK General Secretary and former chief minister Edappadi K Palaniswami, OPS briefly dallied with the idea of an alliance with the NDA itself, either as an independent candidate or by contesting on one of the alliance partners symbols. Finally, he chose to head to the DMK, attracted perhaps by the fact that seven former AIADMK leaders have been made ministers by Chief Minister M K Stalin. For a three-term chief minister to join the party that his mentor, former chief minister J Jayalalithaa, opposed tooth and nail, was seen as an ultimate betrayal, and is unlikely to have much of an electoral impact beyond his home district of Theni.

A clear three-way fight should have favoured the ruling DMK alliance had it remained intact. But, if the Congress was to exit, all bets are off. Tamil Nadu is going to witness an interesting election, one that we will find hard to call until perhaps a few days before the votes are cast.

(Sumanth Raman is a Chennai-based television anchor and political analyst.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.