The Bihar census matrix and BJP's unease

What has rattled the BJP is Nitish Kumar also supporting a caste census and making common cause on the issue with RJD

After the Uttar Pradesh state polls, there is an impression that Hindutva has become a solid unifying glue between social groups, and the BJP is near unbeatable in the Hindi belt. Yet, certain political moves have begun in neighbouring Bihar that challenges this perception. This involves the demand for a caste census, pushed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the principal opposition party in the state, the RJD. The BJP, part of the Nitish Kumar led coalition government in the state, would, however, prefer to avoid this altogether.

It's complicated and, therefore, essential to understand the fundamentals. First, the BJP has made massive inroads among OBCs in north India, yet their support base among upper castes is much more solid, with OBC voters fluctuating in their choices in national and state polls. A caste census would show greater numbers of OBCs and a reduced population of upper castes and can eventually be the trigger for demanding that the 50 per cent cap on reservation be lifted.

This is something that makes the RSS/BJP deeply uneasy. Indeed, it may be recalled that during the 2015 Bihar state polls, when Lalu Prasad Yadav's RJD and Nitish Kumar's JD(U) fought together and defeated the BJP, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat had muddied the waters with a remark that eventually there would have to be a review of the reservation policy. As Lalu Prasad Yadav would then tell me in an interview, the minute he heard the remark, he knew they had lost and "hum jump kiya" (I jumped up).

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A counter-argument could be that things have changed since then and that the BJP has been giving greater representation to OBCs and being rewarded with their support. So, in the long term, the national party may have nothing to fear from fresh estimates of the numbers of the various groups that make up the largest section of Indian society labelled Other Backward Castes. But as social scientist Christophe Jaffrelot, known for his excellent data-based analysis of India, has recently shown in an article co-authored with law student Prannv Dhawan, that's not quite what happened in Uttar Pradesh after the BJP's big recent win.

On the contrary, the upper castes remain dominant after the recent election. To quote from the article titled "Not a Rainbow", 43 per cent of the BJP's MLAs in Uttar Pradesh currently come from the upper castes, who represent only one-fifth of the state society. While OBCs make up 50 per cent of the state's population, they constitute one-third of the MLAs. There is a more detailed break down of the specific numbers of upper caste MLAs and how they hold the more significant portfolios.

Fundamentally, therefore, one could argue that although the BJP does some deft social engineering, the levers of real power remain in the hands of the upper castes in a state such as UP. Even if the BJP were to live with the reality of data revealing increased OBC numbers (after all, PM Narendra Modi is technically an OBC, although he is a Hindutva strongman who transcends caste), it's probably not acceptable to the RSS. The Sangh leadership has been overwhelmingly Brahmin, although they strongly promote ideas that they see as creating "unity" in society and speak of a "beyond caste" consciousness.

Imagine the RSS wariness of allowing a census that would inevitably show the numbers of upper castes shrinking and those of the OBCs and SC/STs increasing—the latter numbers are counted in each census and have registered an increase, while OBC numbers are not counted in the census. The demand is fundamentally about the counting of OBC numbers. Leader of the Opposition in Bihar, Tejashvi Yadav, has announced a padayatra from Patna to Delhi as part of his campaign demanding a caste census.

What has rattled the BJP is Nitish Kumar also supporting a caste census and declaring that the state would hold one of its own in the face of the Centre's stonewalling. There is both rivalry between Nitish and the RJD but also a meeting of minds on the issue. It must be noted that Nitish Kumar has in the past ditched the BJP just as he would later ditch Lalu Yadav. Yet he, too, is an OBC leader and would like to leave a legacy in the state where he has been the chief minister several times and can actually be credited with creating categories known as Mahadalits and EBC.

In Bihar, caste remains the primary identity of mobilisation, and in the face of limited industrial growth, government jobs and admissions are keenly fought for. A caste census could change estimates, not just for the BJP but for other parties as well.

For instance, the RJD could find that the so-called dominant OBC groups such as Yadavs may not have had a population growth that matches some smaller EBC communities. Yet, the RJD would be willing to bite the bullet as it is fundamentally a Mandal-era party whose primary ideology is social justice. It's also important to note that the so-called forward castes make up a smaller share of the population in Bihar than in Uttar Pradesh. Indeed, a caste census could show the numbers in both states being smaller than the estimates that are usually given.

Linked to this churning in Bihar are the raids on Lalu Prasad Yadav last week. The CBI suddenly registered a fresh corruption case after the former chief minister had got bail in all the five cases linked to the infamous fodder scam cases. The general view in Patna is that the act was designed to harass Lalu Yadav but also to signal to Nitish Kumar that he should not consider ditching the BJP and finding common cause with the RJD again.

What the BJP would like in the countdown to 2024 is ideally to continue to use Nitish and slowly keep encroaching on his constituencies and eventually make them their own. The national party would like to keep Nitish Kumar encircled. But as one of the most seasoned player of coalition politics, the chief minister has begun signalling and making moves designed to keep people guessing.

(Saba Naqvi is a journalist and author)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.