The Dalai Lama, his successor and geopolitics

There are two things that stand out in the statement issued by the Dalai Lama on the issue of his succession. Perusal of the official website of the Dalai Lama informs that the statement was first prepared on May 21 but was officially released only on July 2, 2025, a few days prior to the 90th birthday of the Dalai Lama. The second is that the statement reaffirms that the institution of the Dalai Lama will continue and that the Gaden Phodrang Trust will have a final say in recognising the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. Both points are not new and go to show that the 14th Dalai Lama seeks to carefully craft a strategy for succession that will benefit the Tibetan people. The statement is important from a Chinese perspective, because the Dalai Lama has emphasised that no one other than the Phodrang Trust has the authority to recognise his reincarnation. 

China’s reaction is along expected lines, and they contend that the name of the Dalai Lama’s successor should be approved by the ‘central government.’ Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said at a regular press briefing that “The reincarnation of the Dalai Lama, the Panchen Lama, and other great Buddhist figures must be chosen by drawing lots from a golden urn and approved by the central government.” She cited the Qing dynasty-era method to justify Beijing’s authority over reincarnations. China has, for some time now, taken the view that only it can decide the reincarnation of Buddhist leaders, while making the false claim that it is the home of Buddhism. The Dalai Lama has thus thrown down a gauntlet at China by stating that only the Gaden Phodrang Trust has the authority to ‘recognise his future reincarnation.’ 

India, on the other hand, has said it does not have a ‘position’ on the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation. The Ministry of External Affairs maintained that “the Government of India does not take any position or speak on matters concerning beliefs and practices of faith and religion,” with reference to the Dalai Lama’s statement on his reincarnation. For a country in which the Dalai Lama has long been a resident since 1959 and from which the 14th Dalai Lama has been the spiritual leader of Tibetans worldwide, India may have been expected to make supportive statements. This is so because China has a clear view on the issue of succession and intends to implement its decision, irrespective of whether the Dalai Lama likes it or not. The future of India-China relations also depends a great deal on whether the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama is found in India. 

In the current context, the MEA spokesperson’s remarks appear to have been made more to convey that Kiren Rijju’s remarks on July 3 on the Dalai Lama’s succession were not the official line. Rijju reportedly said that the next Dalai Lama should be decided by the established institution and no one else. This was an indirect support to the Dalai Lama’s stand that no one else, including China, had the authority to recognise the next Dalai Lama. The Dalai Lama turning 90 provided the ideal opportunity for an announcement on the next holder of the office, with a clear statement on recognition of the reincarnation. 

Therefore, by announcing that the Gaden Phodrang Trust will be the sole authority to recognise his future reincarnation, the Dalai Lama has sent out a powerful signal to China that he wants no interference from Beijing on this count. This is the primary reason why India chose to take a neutral stance on the matter. Committing itself to a position would mean setting the course for a clash with China. The merits and demerits of this approach will be debated, but the tenor of the MEA’s remarks indicates the need for a quiet pat on the back. Now that the die is cast, it is worth dwelling on what the Gaden Phodrang Trust is.

The Gaden Phodrang (GP) is the private office of the Dalai Lama. It is different from the office of the Dalai Lama in Dharamshala, known as Kuger Yigstang. The GP has, among others, the Gaden Tripa (spiritual head of the Gelug sect of Tibetan Buddhism), Tenzin Taklha, Secretary to the 14th Dalai Lama, and Samdhong Rinpoche, former Central Tibetan Administration President. The Gaden Phodrang Trust that the Dalai Lama mentioned in his 2 July 2025 statement is an NGO registered in Dharamshala and operates from his private office. It is headed by Samdong Rinpoche. The Trust has amongst its members the Dalai Lama himself, Samdhong Rinpoche, and a few close aides from the Dalai Lama’s Dharamshala office. 

The Dalai Lama, in his July 2 statement, informed that GP “should consult the various heads of the Tibetan Buddhist traditions and the reliable oath-bound Dharma Protectors who are linked inseparably to the lineage of the Dalai Lamas. They should accordingly carry out the procedures of search and recognition in accordance with past tradition.” These remarks indicate that the search will begin now, and the Dalai Lama’s 90th birthday celebrations will set the ball rolling to find his successor. 

Ultimately, India has a stake in the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama. Whatever else may be the rationale for not taking a position on the matter currently, the reality of the Chinese ingress in the matter cannot be wished away. If the contention is that both nations can live with two Dalai Lamas, then the future of the Tibetan movement worldwide is shaky. For the Tibetan movement to live beyond the 14th Dalai Lama, India must quietly reassure the Dalai Lama that it will support him. May the Dalai Lama live long, but his reincarnation needs to be found in his lifetime.

(The writer is a former director of the National Security Council Secretariat)